Value bet: Sao Paulo to win @ 4.10 – our chance 34% vs 24% implied by the price (edge +40%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCorinthians to win43% · @2.00
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals82% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–014% · fair 7.24
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo preview and prediction
The match
Corinthians host Sao Paulo in the Serie A on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT) at Neo Quimica Arena. Corinthians are 17th with 37 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Sao Paulo sit 10th on 44 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Corinthians's last 5: DLWWD Most recently they drew with Santa Fe 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sao Paulo's last 5: DDWWW Most recently they drew with O'Higgins 0–0 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 6 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sao Paulo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.1 for Corinthians and 1.0 for Sao Paulo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Corinthians 43%, draw 23%, Sao Paulo 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.05.
Value angle: Sao Paulo to win at 4.10 – 34% on our numbers against 24% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 63% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Corinthians 1–0 Sao Paulo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Corinthians43%fair 2.35 · @2.00
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.05
Sao Paulo34%fair 2.94 · @4.10
2.11Expected goals
1.14Corinthians xG
0.97Sao Paulo xG
52%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.1 – 1.0 Sao Paulo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Corinthians to win
43%
2.35
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.94
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
63%
1.58
1.48
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
63%
1.59
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
82%
1.22
1.18
Half-time result
Level at half-time
48%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Corinthians / FT Corinthians
22%
4.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
14%
7.24
–
Form
Corinthians – last 6
DLWWDW
7 May
@ Santa Fe
1–1
D
4 May
@ Mirassol
1–2
L
1 May
vs Penarol
2–0
W
22 Apr
@ Barra
1–0
W
19 Apr
@ Vitoria
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Santa Fe
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Sao Paulo – last 6
DDWWWW
7 May
@ O'Higgins
0–0
D
29 Apr
@ Millonarios
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Mirassol
1–0
W
21 Apr
vs Juventude
1–0
W
14 Apr
vs O'Higgins
2–0
W
8 Apr
@ Boston River
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Corinthians and Sao Paulo.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Sao Paulo 34%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–0 Sao Paulo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Sao Paulo?
Corinthians vs Sao Paulo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Quimica Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
