Value bet: Botafogo to win @ 3.25 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico-MG to win39% · @2.14
Double chanceEither team to win77% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–18% · fair 11.90
Atletico-MG vs Botafogo preview and prediction
The match
Atletico-MG host Botafogo in the Serie A on Sunday 10 May, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at MRV Arena. Atletico-MG are 7th with 50 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Botafogo sit 11th on 42 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Atletico-MG's last 5: DWLWW Most recently they drew with Juventud 2–2 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Botafogo's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Racing Club 2–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Botafogo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.5 for Atletico-MG and 1.5 for Botafogo. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 52% and both teams to score at 59%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Botafogo to win at 3.25 – 38% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Atletico-MG 1–1 Botafogo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico-MG39%fair 2.59 · @2.14
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.40
Botafogo38%fair 2.60 · @3.25
2.94Expected goals
1.47Atletico-MG xG
1.47Botafogo xG
59%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–18%
2–26%
From our goals model: Atletico-MG 1.5 – 1.5 Botafogo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win
39%
2.59
2.14
Double chance
Either team to win
77%
1.30
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
59%
1.70
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.95
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.44
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG
22%
4.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
8%
11.90
–
Form
Atletico-MG – last 6
DWLWWL
5 May
@ Juventud
2–2
D
3 May
@ Cruzeiro
3–1
W
30 Apr
@ Cienciano
0–1
L
23 Apr
vs Ceara
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Juventud
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Santos
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Botafogo – last 6
WWWWDW
7 May
vs Racing Club
2–1
W
28 Apr
vs Independiente Petrolero
3–0
W
21 Apr
vs Chapecoense-sc
1–0
W
15 Apr
@ Racing Club
3–2
W
9 Apr
vs Caracas FC
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico-MG and Botafogo.
What is the prediction for Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
On our numbers Atletico-MG have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Botafogo 38%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Our predicted score is Atletico-MG 1–1 Botafogo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Atletico-MG vs Botafogo?
Atletico-MG vs Botafogo (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at MRV Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
