Value bet: Cruzeiro to win @ 3.55 – our chance 34% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +21%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBahia to win ✗44% · @2.04
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.77
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗10% · fair 10.27
Bahia vs Cruzeiro preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Bahia take on Cruzeiro on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Arena Fonte Nova. Bahia are 6th with 53 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Cruzeiro sit 3rd on 60 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Bahia's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Remo 1–3 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Cruzeiro's last 5: DLWDW Most recently they drew with U. Catolica 0–0 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for Bahia and 1.2 for Cruzeiro. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 57%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Bahia 44%, draw 22%, Cruzeiro 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (57%) at 1.77.
Value angle: Cruzeiro to win at 3.55 – 34% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Bahia 1–1 Cruzeiro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Bahia44%fair 2.27 · @2.04
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.35
Cruzeiro34%fair 2.93 · @3.55
2.71Expected goals
1.46Bahia xG
1.25Cruzeiro xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Bahia 1.5 – 1.2 Cruzeiro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Bahia to win✗
44%
2.27
2.04
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.77
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.28
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Bahia / FT Bahia✗
25%
4.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
10%
10.27
–
Form
Bahia – last 6
LLLWWW
22 Apr
vs Remo
1–3
L
19 Apr
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–0
W
18 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Internacional
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Cruzeiro – last 6
DLWDWL
7 May
@ U. Catolica
0–0
D
3 May
vs Atletico-MG
1–3
L
29 Apr
vs Boca Juniors
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Goias
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Gremio
2–0
W
15 Apr
vs U. Catolica
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bahia and Cruzeiro.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
On our numbers Bahia have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Cruzeiro 34%.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Our predicted score is Bahia 1–1 Cruzeiro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Bahia vs Cruzeiro?
Bahia vs Cruzeiro (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena Fonte Nova.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
