Bahia travel to Estadio Do MorumBIS in the Serie A on Sunday 3 May (20:00 WAT) to face Sao Paulo. Sao Paulo are 10th with 44 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Bahia sit 6th on 53 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Sao Paulo's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Millonarios 0–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Bahia's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Remo 1–3 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sao Paulo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.5 for Sao Paulo and 1.0 for Bahia. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Paulo 51%, draw 22%, Bahia 27%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sao Paulo 1–0 Bahia. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Paulo51%fair 1.97 · @1.99
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.30
Bahia27%fair 3.66 · @3.80
2.42Expected goals
1.46Sao Paulo xG
0.97Bahia xG
50%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–112%
2–09%
2–19%
0–09%
0–19%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.5 – 1.0 Bahia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sao Paulo to win
51%
1.97
1.99
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.28
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
56%
1.80
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.31
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sao Paulo / FT Sao Paulo
29%
3.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.74
–
Form
Sao Paulo – last 6
DWWWWD
29 Apr
@ Millonarios
0–0
D
26 Apr
vs Mirassol
1–0
W
21 Apr
vs Juventude
1–0
W
14 Apr
vs O'Higgins
2–0
W
8 Apr
@ Boston River
1–0
W
1 Apr
@ Internacional
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Bahia – last 6
LLLWWW
22 Apr
vs Remo
1–3
L
19 Apr
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
5 Apr
vs Palmeiras
1–2
L
2 Apr
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–0
W
18 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Internacional
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sao Paulo and Bahia.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Bahia 27%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–0 Bahia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Bahia?
Sao Paulo vs Bahia (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
