Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Atletico Paranaense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico Paranaense to win @ 1.81 – our chance 64% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win ✗64% · @1.81
Double chanceAtletico Paranaense or draw ✓86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.01
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio preview and prediction
The match
Gremio travel to Arena da Baixada in the Serie A on Sunday 3 May (00:30 WAT) to face Atletico Paranaense. Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Gremio sit 18th on 37 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: DLWWL Most recently they drew with Atletico Goianiense 0–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Gremio's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Palestino 0–0 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.8 for Atletico Paranaense and 0.7 for Gremio. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 48%.
Safer route: Atletico Paranaense or draw (86%) at 1.20.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Atletico Paranaense to win at 1.81 – 64% on our numbers against 55% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico Paranaense or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Gremio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Paranaense64%fair 1.56 · @1.81
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.45
Gremio14%fair 6.97 · @4.35
2.55Expected goals
1.83Atletico Paranaense xG
0.72Gremio xG
48%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.8 – 0.7 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win✗
64%
1.56
1.81 ▲
Double chance
Atletico Paranaense or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
52%
1.92
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
72%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.89
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Half-time result
Atletico Paranaense ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense✗
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.01
–
Form
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
DLWWLD
24 Apr
vs Atletico Goianiense
0–0
D
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 6
DWLWDL
30 Apr
@ Palestino
0–0
D
21 Apr
vs Confiança
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Cruzeiro
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Deportivo Riestra
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Internacional
0–0
D
9 Apr
@ Atletico Torque
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Gremio.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our pick is Atletico Paranaense or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Gremio 14%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio?
Atletico Paranaense vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
