Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 3.25 – our chance 38% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultInternacional to win38% · @2.22
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–011% · fair 9.43
Internacional vs Fluminense preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Internacional take on Fluminense on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT). Internacional are 16th with 38 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Fluminense sit 4th on 57 points (in the top four). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Internacional's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Athletic Club 2–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Fluminense's last 5: LDLDD Most recently they lost to Bolívar 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Internacional arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.2 for Internacional and 1.2 for Fluminense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 44%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Internacional 38%, draw 24%, Fluminense 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.90.
Value angle: Fluminense to win at 3.25 – 38% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Internacional 1–1 Fluminense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Internacional38%fair 2.64 · @2.22
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
Fluminense38%fair 2.64 · @3.25
2.45Expected goals
1.22Internacional xG
1.22Fluminense xG
56%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–011%
0–111%
0–09%
2–18%
1–28%
From our goals model: Internacional 1.2 – 1.2 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Internacional to win
38%
2.64
2.22
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.78
1.90 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.46
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
56%
1.77
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Internacional / FT Internacional
21%
4.82
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
11%
9.43
–
Form
Internacional – last 6
WLDWDW
23 Apr
@ Athletic Club
2–1
W
19 Apr
vs Mirassol
1–2
L
12 Apr
vs Gremio
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Corinthians
1–0
W
1 Apr
vs Sao Paulo
1–1
D
19 Mar
@ Santos
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
LDLDDW
30 Apr
@ Bolívar
0–2
L
24 Apr
@ Operario-PR
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Independ. Rivadavia
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Deportivo La Guaira
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Corinthians
3–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Internacional and Fluminense.
What is the prediction for Internacional vs Fluminense?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Internacional vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Internacional have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fluminense 38%.
How many goals will there be in Internacional vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Internacional vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Internacional 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Internacional vs Fluminense?
Internacional vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
