Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Cruzeiro to win @ 1.84 – our chance 65% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruzeiro to win ✗65% · @1.84
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw ✗86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 6.98
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Cruzeiro take on Atletico-MG on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at Governador Magalhães Pinto. Cruzeiro are 3rd with 60 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Atletico-MG sit 7th on 50 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Cruzeiro's last 5: WDWLW Most recently they beat Boca Juniors 1–0 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico-MG's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Cienciano 0–1 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Cruzeiro arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Cruzeiro and 0.7 for Atletico-MG. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Cruzeiro to win at 1.84 – 65% on our numbers against 54% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cruzeiro or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cruzeiro 1–0 Atletico-MG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruzeiro65%fair 1.53 · @1.84
Draw21%fair 4.76 · @3.40
Atletico-MG14%fair 7.25 · @4.33
2.56Expected goals
1.86Cruzeiro xG
0.70Atletico-MG xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 1.9 – 0.7 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruzeiro to win✗
65%
1.53
1.84 ▲
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.82
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Cruzeiro ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro✗
41%
2.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
6.98
–
Form
Cruzeiro – last 6
WDWLWW
29 Apr
vs Boca Juniors
1–0
W
22 Apr
@ Goias
2–2
D
19 Apr
vs Gremio
2–0
W
15 Apr
vs U. Catolica
1–2
L
8 Apr
@ Barcelona SC
1–0
W
2 Apr
vs Vitoria
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
LWWLLW
30 Apr
@ Cienciano
0–1
L
23 Apr
vs Ceara
2–1
W
16 Apr
vs Juventud
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Santos
0–1
L
9 Apr
@ Puerto Cabello
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Cruzeiro or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico-MG 14%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 1–0 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG?
Cruzeiro vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at Governador Magalhães Pinto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
