Value bet: Fluminense to win @ 2.82 – our chance 40% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultFluminense to win40% · @2.82
Double chanceEither team to win76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–110% · fair 9.74
Santos vs Fluminense preview and prediction
The match
Fluminense travel to Estadio Urbano Caldeira in the Serie A on Sunday 19 April (20:00 WAT) to face Santos. Santos are 9th with 47 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Fluminense sit 4th on 57 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Santos's last 5: DWLWL Most recently they drew with Deportivo Recoleta 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 5. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Fluminense's last 5: LDDWL Most recently they lost to Independ. Rivadavia 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Santos and 1.3 for Fluminense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Fluminense to win at 2.82 – 40% on our numbers against 35% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Santos 1–1 Fluminense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos35%fair 2.82 · @2.52
Draw24%fair 4.09 · @3.15
Fluminense40%fair 2.49 · @2.82
2.56Expected goals
1.23Santos xG
1.33Fluminense xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–28%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Santos 1.2 – 1.3 Fluminense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Fluminense to win
40%
2.49
2.82 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.78
1.90 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
69%
1.44
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
55%
1.80
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Fluminense / FT Fluminense
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
10%
9.74
–
Form
Santos – last 6
DWLWLD
15 Apr
vs Deportivo Recoleta
1–1
D
12 Apr
vs Atletico-MG
1–0
W
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Remo
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Internacional
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Fluminense – last 6
LDDWLW
16 Apr
vs Independ. Rivadavia
1–2
L
7 Apr
@ Deportivo La Guaira
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Coritiba
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Corinthians
3–1
W
19 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Atletico Paranaense
3–2
W
1.7Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Fluminense.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Santos vs Fluminense?
On our numbers Santos have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Fluminense 40%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Fluminense?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Fluminense?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Fluminense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Fluminense?
Santos vs Fluminense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
