Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 2.94 – our chance 40% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico-MG to win40% · @2.94
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score51% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–112% · fair 8.58
Coritiba vs Atletico-MG preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Coritiba take on Atletico-MG on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT). Coritiba are 12th with 42 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Atletico-MG sit 7th on 50 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Coritiba's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Fluminense 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.6 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico-MG's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Juventud 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Coritiba and 1.2 for Atletico-MG. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 51%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Atletico-MG to win at 2.94 – 40% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Coritiba 1–1 Atletico-MG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Coritiba35%fair 2.85 · @2.46
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.10
Atletico-MG40%fair 2.49 · @2.94
2.36Expected goals
1.13Coritiba xG
1.23Atletico-MG xG
51%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Coritiba 1.1 – 1.2 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico-MG to win
40%
2.49
2.94 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.33
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
67%
1.49
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
58%
1.72
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico-MG / FT Atletico-MG
22%
4.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
12%
8.58
–
Form
Coritiba – last 5
DDWWL
5 Apr
vs Fluminense
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Vasco DA Gama
1–1
D
19 Mar
@ Mirassol
1–0
W
12 Mar
@ Corinthians
2–0
W
25 Feb
vs Sao Paulo
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
WLLWWW
16 Apr
vs Juventud
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Santos
0–1
L
9 Apr
@ Puerto Cabello
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Internacional
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Coritiba and Atletico-MG.
What is the prediction for Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Coritiba have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Atletico-MG 40%.
How many goals will there be in Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Coritiba 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Coritiba vs Atletico-MG?
Coritiba vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
