Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense prediction & analysis
74%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.30
8/10Rating
1.30Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win67% · @1.56
Double chancePalmeiras or draw86% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.93
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–013% · fair 7.57
Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Palmeiras take on Atletico Paranaense on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 22:30 (WAT) at Allianz Parque. Palmeiras are 2nd with 73 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Atletico Paranaense sit 5th on 54 points (in the top half). A gap of 19 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Palmeiras's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Sporting Cristal 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Bahia 0–3 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Palmeiras arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Palmeiras and 0.7 for Atletico Paranaense. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 50%, both teams to score at 56%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.93 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: Palmeiras 2–0 Atletico Paranaense. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Palmeiras67%fair 1.48 · @1.56
Draw19%fair 5.40 · @3.85
Atletico Paranaense14%fair 7.10 · @5.90
2.70Expected goals
1.97Palmeiras xG
0.73Atletico Paranaense xG
56%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Palmeiras 2.0 – 0.7 Atletico Paranaense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win
67%
1.48
1.56 ▲
Double chance
Palmeiras or draw
86%
1.16
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.79
1.93 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.36
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
50%
1.99
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.30
Half-time result
Palmeiras ahead at half-time
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
13%
7.57
–
Form
Palmeiras – last 6
WDWWWW
16 Apr
vs Sporting Cristal
2–1
W
9 Apr
@ Junior
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Bahia
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Gremio
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LWWLDL
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Palmeiras and Atletico Paranaense.
What is the prediction for Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
On our numbers Palmeiras have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Atletico Paranaense 14%.
How many goals will there be in Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our predicted score is Palmeiras 2–0 Atletico Paranaense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense?
Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Allianz Parque.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
