Value bet: Atletico-MG to win @ 3.20 – our chance 37% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSantos to win ✓39% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.83
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓10% · fair 10.22
Santos vs Atletico-MG preview and prediction
The match
Atletico-MG travel to Estádio Urbano Caldeira in the Serie A on Sunday 12 April (00:00 WAT) to face Santos. Santos are 9th with 47 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Atletico-MG sit 7th on 50 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Santos's last 5: LWLDD Most recently they lost to Deportivo Cuenca 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Atletico-MG's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Puerto Cabello 1–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Santos and 1.3 for Atletico-MG. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Atletico-MG to win at 3.20 – 37% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Santos 1–1 Atletico-MG. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Santos39%fair 2.57 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.20
Atletico-MG37%fair 2.72 · @3.20
2.61Expected goals
1.33Santos xG
1.28Atletico-MG xG
53%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Santos 1.3 – 1.3 Atletico-MG expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Santos to win✓
39%
2.57
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
1.83
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Santos / FT Santos✗
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
10%
10.22
–
Form
Santos – last 6
LWLDDW
8 Apr
@ Deportivo Cuenca
0–1
L
2 Apr
vs Remo
2–0
W
19 Mar
vs Internacional
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
11 Mar
@ Mirassol
2–2
D
26 Feb
vs Vasco DA Gama
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Atletico-MG – last 6
LWWWLD
9 Apr
@ Puerto Cabello
1–2
L
2 Apr
@ Chapecoense-sc
4–0
W
19 Mar
vs Sao Paulo
1–0
W
11 Mar
vs Internacional
1–0
W
26 Feb
@ Gremio
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs America Mineiro
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Santos and Atletico-MG.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Santos vs Atletico-MG?
On our numbers Santos have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Atletico-MG 37%.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Atletico-MG?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Santos vs Atletico-MG?
Our predicted score is Santos 1–1 Atletico-MG, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Santos vs Atletico-MG?
Santos vs Atletico-MG (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
