Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc prediction & analysis
75%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.28
8/10Rating
1.28Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win63% · @1.50
Double chanceAtletico Paranaense or draw85% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score57% · @1.91
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–012% · fair 8.26
Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Atletico Paranaense take on Chapecoense-sc on Sunday 12 April, kicking off at 15:00 (WAT) at Arena da Baixada. Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Chapecoense-sc sit 20th on 21 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 33 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: LWWLD Most recently they lost to Bahia 0–3 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Chapecoense-sc's last 5: WDLWD Most recently they beat Avai 2–1 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Atletico Paranaense and 0.8 for Chapecoense-sc. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 57%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.91 – 57% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Chapecoense-sc. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Paranaense63%fair 1.58 · @1.50
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @4.10
Chapecoense-sc15%fair 6.68 · @6.25
2.78Expected goals
1.95Atletico Paranaense xG
0.83Chapecoense-sc xG
57%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
3–16%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.9 – 0.8 Chapecoense-sc expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win
63%
1.58
1.50
Double chance
Atletico Paranaense or draw
85%
1.18
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
57%
1.75
1.91 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.93
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
70%
1.44
1.35
Half-time result
Atletico Paranaense ahead at half-time
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
12%
8.26
–
Form
Atletico Paranaense – last 6
LWWLDL
2 Apr
@ Bahia
0–3
L
29 Mar
vs Botafogo
4–1
W
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Chapecoense-sc – last 6
WDLWDD
8 Apr
vs Avai
2–1
W
5 Apr
vs Vitoria
1–1
D
2 Apr
vs Atletico-MG
0–4
L
26 Mar
vs São Bernardo
2–1
W
20 Mar
vs Corinthians
0–0
D
17 Mar
vs Gremio
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Chapecoense-sc.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Chapecoense-sc 15%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 2–0 Chapecoense-sc, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc?
Atletico Paranaense vs Chapecoense-sc (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
