Value bet: Palmeiras to win @ 2.46 – our chance 46% vs 41% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultPalmeiras to win46% · @2.46
Double chanceEither team to win78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score53% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–112% · fair 8.30
Corinthians vs Palmeiras preview and prediction
The match
Corinthians host Palmeiras in the Serie A on Sunday 12 April, with kick-off at 22:30 (WAT) at Neo Quimica Arena. Corinthians are 17th with 37 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Palmeiras sit 2nd on 73 points (in the top four). A gap of 36 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Corinthians's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Platense 2–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Palmeiras's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Junior 1–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Palmeiras arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.1 for Corinthians and 1.4 for Palmeiras. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Palmeiras to win at 2.46 – 46% on our numbers against 41% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Corinthians 1–1 Palmeiras. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Corinthians31%fair 3.18 · @2.90
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.15
Palmeiras46%fair 2.17 · @2.46
2.43Expected goals
1.06Corinthians xG
1.37Palmeiras xG
53%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–09%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Corinthians 1.1 – 1.4 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Palmeiras to win
46%
2.17
2.46 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
78%
1.29
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
53%
1.87
1.90
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.75
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
45%
2.24
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Palmeiras / FT Palmeiras
26%
3.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1
12%
8.30
–
Form
Corinthians – last 6
WLLDDD
10 Apr
@ Platense
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Internacional
0–1
L
2 Apr
@ Fluminense
1–3
L
23 Mar
vs Flamengo
1–1
D
20 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ Santos
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Palmeiras – last 6
DWWWWL
9 Apr
@ Junior
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ Bahia
2–1
W
3 Apr
vs Gremio
2–1
W
22 Mar
@ Sao Paulo
1–0
W
18 Mar
vs Botafogo
2–1
W
12 Mar
@ Vasco DA Gama
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Corinthians and Palmeiras.
What is the prediction for Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Corinthians have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Palmeiras 46%.
How many goals will there be in Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Corinthians 1–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Corinthians vs Palmeiras?
Corinthians vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Neo Quimica Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
