Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.22
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Vasco DA Gama to win @ 1.90 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultVasco DA Gama to win65% · @1.90
Double chanceVasco DA Gama or draw86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–011% · fair 8.76
Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio preview and prediction
The match
Vasco DA Gama host Gremio in the Serie A on Sunday 22 March, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT). Vasco DA Gama are 13th with 41 points from 33 games (in the bottom half), while Gremio sit 18th on 37 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Vasco DA Gama's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Fluminense 3–2 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Gremio's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Vitoria 2–0 at home. They average 1.4 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 2.1 for Vasco DA Gama and 0.9 for Gremio. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score in 56% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Vasco DA Gama 65%, draw 21%, Gremio 14%.
Safer route: Vasco DA Gama or draw (86%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.75.
Value angle: Vasco DA Gama to win at 1.90 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Vasco DA Gama or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.17, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Vasco DA Gama 2–0 Gremio. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Vasco DA Gama65%fair 1.55 · @1.90
Draw21%fair 4.73 · @3.35
Gremio14%fair 7.02 · @4.10
2.92Expected goals
2.06Vasco DA Gama xG
0.86Gremio xG
56%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Vasco DA Gama 2.1 – 0.9 Gremio expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Vasco DA Gama to win
65%
1.55
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Vasco DA Gama or draw
86%
1.17
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.80
1.75
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.91
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.33
Half-time result
Vasco DA Gama ahead at half-time
47%
2.13
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Vasco DA Gama / FT Vasco DA Gama
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0
11%
8.76
–
Form
Vasco DA Gama – last 5
WDWLL
19 Mar
vs Fluminense
3–2
W
16 Mar
@ Cruzeiro
3–3
D
12 Mar
vs Palmeiras
2–1
W
26 Feb
@ Santos
1–2
L
22 Feb
vs Fluminense
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Gremio – last 5
WDDWD
19 Mar
vs Vitoria
2–0
W
17 Mar
@ Chapecoense-sc
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs RB Bragantino
1–1
D
26 Feb
vs Atletico-MG
2–1
W
15 Feb
vs Juventude
1–1
D
1.4Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
20%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Vasco DA Gama and Gremio.
What is the prediction for Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Our pick is Vasco DA Gama or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
On our numbers Vasco DA Gama have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Gremio 14%.
How many goals will there be in Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Our predicted score is Vasco DA Gama 2–0 Gremio, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio?
Vasco DA Gama vs Gremio (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
