Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba prediction & analysis
82%
Footrivo pick
Atletico Paranaense or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Atletico Paranaense to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico Paranaense to win56% · @1.95
Double chanceAtletico Paranaense or draw82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–015% · fair 6.68
Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba preview and prediction
The match
The Serie A sees Atletico Paranaense take on Coritiba on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Arena da Baixada. Atletico Paranaense are 5th with 54 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Coritiba sit 12th on 42 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 12 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Atletico Paranaense's last 5: WLDLL Most recently they beat Cruzeiro 2–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Coritiba's last 3: WWL Most recently they beat Mirassol 1–0 away. They average 1.0 scored and 0.3 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Coritiba arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.6 for Atletico Paranaense and 0.8 for Coritiba. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 52%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Safer route: Atletico Paranaense or draw (82%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.91.
Value angle: Atletico Paranaense to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Atletico Paranaense or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Coritiba. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico Paranaense56%fair 1.79 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.86 · @3.20
Coritiba18%fair 5.51 · @4.00
2.35Expected goals
1.57Atletico Paranaense xG
0.78Coritiba xG
52%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–012%
1–112%
0–010%
2–19%
0–17%
From our goals model: Atletico Paranaense 1.6 – 0.8 Coritiba expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico Paranaense to win
56%
1.79
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Atletico Paranaense or draw
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.92
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.48
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
78%
1.28
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atletico Paranaense / FT Atletico Paranaense
34%
2.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
15%
6.68
–
Form
Atletico Paranaense – last 5
WLDLL
18 Mar
vs Cruzeiro
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Fluminense
2–3
L
25 Feb
@ RB Bragantino
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Londrina
0–1
L
19 Feb
vs Corinthians
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Coritiba – last 3
WWL
19 Mar
@ Mirassol
1–0
W
12 Mar
@ Corinthians
2–0
W
25 Feb
vs Sao Paulo
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico Paranaense and Coritiba.
What is the prediction for Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Our pick is Atletico Paranaense or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
On our numbers Atletico Paranaense have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Coritiba 18%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Our predicted score is Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Coritiba, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba?
Atletico Paranaense vs Coritiba (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Arena da Baixada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
