Value bet: Cruzeiro to win @ 1.75 – our chance 61% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultCruzeiro to win61% · @1.75
Double chanceCruzeiro or draw85% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score52% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–011% · fair 9.35
Cruzeiro vs Santos preview and prediction
The match
Santos travel to face Cruzeiro in the Serie A on Sunday 22 March (20:00 WAT). Cruzeiro are 3rd with 60 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Santos sit 9th on 47 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Cruzeiro's last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Atletico Paranaense 1–2 away. They average 1.4 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Santos's last 5: LDDWL Most recently they lost to Internacional 1–2 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for Cruzeiro and 0.9 for Santos. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 52% and both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cruzeiro 61%, draw 24%, Santos 15%.
Safer route: Cruzeiro or draw (85%) at 1.18.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.85.
Value angle: Cruzeiro to win at 1.75 – 61% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Cruzeiro 2–0 Santos. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cruzeiro61%fair 1.63 · @1.75
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.55
Santos15%fair 6.88 · @4.60
2.96Expected goals
2.04Cruzeiro xG
0.93Santos xG
52%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
1–011%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: Cruzeiro 2.0 – 0.9 Santos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cruzeiro to win
61%
1.63
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Cruzeiro or draw
85%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
52%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.92
2.00
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.30
Half-time result
Cruzeiro ahead at half-time
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cruzeiro / FT Cruzeiro
40%
2.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0
11%
9.35
–
Form
Cruzeiro – last 5
LDLDW
18 Mar
@ Atletico Paranaense
1–2
L
16 Mar
vs Vasco DA Gama
3–3
D
12 Mar
@ Flamengo
0–2
L
26 Feb
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
14 Feb
@ Uniao Trabalhadores
2–1
W
1.4Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
80%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Santos – last 6
LDDWLW
19 Mar
vs Internacional
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Corinthians
1–1
D
11 Mar
@ Mirassol
2–2
D
26 Feb
vs Vasco DA Gama
2–1
W
22 Feb
@ Novorizontino
1–2
L
16 Feb
vs Velo Clube
7–0
W
2.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cruzeiro and Santos.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Cruzeiro vs Santos?
On our numbers Cruzeiro have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Santos 15%.
How many goals will there be in Cruzeiro vs Santos?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cruzeiro vs Santos?
Our predicted score is Cruzeiro 2–0 Santos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Cruzeiro vs Santos?
Cruzeiro vs Santos (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
