The Serie A sees Sao Paulo take on Palmeiras on Sunday 22 March, kicking off at 01:00 (WAT) at MorumBIS. Sao Paulo are 10th with 44 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Palmeiras sit 2nd on 73 points (in the top four). A gap of 29 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sao Paulo's last 5: LWWLW Most recently they lost to Atletico-MG 0–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Palmeiras's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Botafogo 2–1 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Palmeiras arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 2 March 2026, finished Palmeiras 2–1 Sao Paulo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.3 for Sao Paulo and 1.2 for Palmeiras. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 55%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sao Paulo 39%, draw 26%, Palmeiras 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Sao Paulo 1–1 Palmeiras. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sao Paulo39%fair 2.58 · @2.72
Draw26%fair 3.85 · @2.92
Palmeiras35%fair 2.83 · @2.78
2.55Expected goals
1.31Sao Paulo xG
1.24Palmeiras xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
1–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Sao Paulo 1.3 – 1.2 Palmeiras expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
On our numbers Sao Paulo have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Palmeiras 35%.
How many goals will there be in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our predicted score is Sao Paulo 1–1 Palmeiras, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras (Serie A) kicks off on Sunday 22 March 2026 at 01:00 (West Africa Time) at MorumBIS.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
