Value bet: Nashville SC to win @ 2.78 – our chance 44% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNashville SC to win ✗44% · @2.78
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗60% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗9% · fair 10.62
Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC preview and prediction
The match
The Major League Soccer sees Philadelphia Union take on Nashville SC on Sunday 3 May, kicking off at 00:30 (WAT) at Subaru Park. Philadelphia Union are 6th with 50 points from 34 games (in the top half), while Nashville SC sit 1st on 77 points (top of the table). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Philadelphia Union's last 5: LDDLD Most recently they lost to Columbus Crew 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Nashville SC's last 5: LWWWW Most recently they lost to Tigres UANL 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Nashville SC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.3 for Philadelphia Union and 1.5 for Nashville SC. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Philadelphia Union 35%, draw 21%, Nashville SC 44%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Nashville SC to win at 2.78 – 44% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Philadelphia Union 1–1 Nashville SC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Philadelphia Union35%fair 2.84 · @2.40
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.40
Nashville SC44%fair 2.28 · @2.78
2.75Expected goals
1.28Philadelphia Union xG
1.47Nashville SC xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–19%
1–29%
1–08%
2–18%
0–27%
From our goals model: Philadelphia Union 1.3 – 1.5 Nashville SC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nashville SC to win✗
44%
2.28
2.78 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Nashville SC / FT Nashville SC✗
24%
4.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
9%
10.62
–
Form
Philadelphia Union – last 6
LDDLDL
26 Apr
@ Columbus Crew
0–2
L
23 Apr
@ Toronto FC
3–3
D
19 Apr
vs DC United
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Charlotte
1–2
L
19 Mar
@ Club America
1–1
D
11 Mar
vs Club America
0–1
L
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Nashville SC – last 6
LWWWWD
29 Apr
vs Tigres UANL
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Charlotte
4–2
W
19 Apr
@ Atlanta United FC
2–0
W
15 Apr
@ Club America
1–0
W
12 Apr
@ Charlotte
2–1
W
8 Apr
vs Club America
0–0
D
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Philadelphia Union and Nashville SC.
What is the prediction for Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?
On our numbers Philadelphia Union have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Nashville SC 44%.
How many goals will there be in Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?
Our predicted score is Philadelphia Union 1–1 Nashville SC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC?
Philadelphia Union vs Nashville SC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Subaru Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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