FC Dallas vs Minnesota United FC prediction & analysis
80%
Footrivo pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Minnesota United FC to win @ 3.30 – our chance 32% vs 30% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFC Dallas to win ✗47% · @2.02
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.88
FC Dallas vs Minnesota United FC preview and prediction
The match
Minnesota United FC travel to Toyota Stadium in the Major League Soccer on Thursday 23 April (01:30 WAT) to face FC Dallas. FC Dallas are 2nd with 58 points from 34 games (in the top four), while Minnesota United FC sit 10th on 44 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
FC Dallas's last 5: DDWWD Most recently they drew with Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Minnesota United FC's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Portland Timbers 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 1.4 conceded.
Minnesota United FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.7 for FC Dallas and 1.4 for Minnesota United FC. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 62% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: FC Dallas 47%, draw 20%, Minnesota United FC 32%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Minnesota United FC to win at 3.30 – 32% on our numbers against 30% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 80% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: FC Dallas 1–1 Minnesota United FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
FC Dallas47%fair 2.11 · @2.02
Draw20%fair 4.96 · @3.70
Minnesota United FC32%fair 3.08 · @3.30
3.14Expected goals
1.74FC Dallas xG
1.39Minnesota United FC xG
62%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–08%
1–27%
2–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: FC Dallas 1.7 – 1.4 Minnesota United FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Dallas to win✗
47%
2.11
2.02
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.25
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
62%
1.62
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.50
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
38%
2.60
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Dallas / FT FC Dallas✗
28%
3.60
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.88
–
Form
FC Dallas – last 6
DDWWDL
19 Apr
vs Los Angeles Galaxy
2–2
D
12 Apr
vs St. Louis City
1–1
D
5 Apr
@ DC United
4–0
W
22 Mar
vs Houston Dynamo
4–3
W
15 Mar
vs San Diego
3–3
D
8 Mar
@ Los Angeles FC
0–1
L
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Minnesota United FC – last 5
WWWLD
19 Apr
vs Portland Timbers
2–0
W
12 Apr
@ San Diego
2–1
W
5 Apr
@ Los Angeles Galaxy
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Nashville SC
1–3
L
22 Feb
@ Austin
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.4Conceded / game
80%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Dallas and Minnesota United FC.
What is the prediction for FC Dallas vs Minnesota United FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win FC Dallas vs Minnesota United FC?
On our numbers FC Dallas have a 47% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Minnesota United FC 32%.
How many goals will there be in FC Dallas vs Minnesota United FC?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Dallas vs Minnesota United FC?
Our predicted score is FC Dallas 1–1 Minnesota United FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is FC Dallas vs Minnesota United FC?
FC Dallas vs Minnesota United FC (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 01:30 (West Africa Time) at Toyota Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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