Value bet: Toronto FC to win @ 2.40 – our chance 45% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultToronto FC to win ✗45% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 10.71
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union preview and prediction
The match
Philadelphia Union travel to BMO Field in the Major League Soccer on Thursday 23 April (00:30 WAT) to face Toronto FC. Toronto FC are 12th with 39 points from 34 games (in the bottom half), while Philadelphia Union sit 6th on 50 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Toronto FC's last 4: WLLW Most recently they beat FC Cincinnati 1–0 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Philadelphia Union's last 5: DLDLL Most recently they drew with DC United 0–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Toronto FC arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.5 for Toronto FC and 1.3 for Philadelphia Union. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Toronto FC 45%, draw 21%, Philadelphia Union 35%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.65.
Value angle: Toronto FC to win at 2.40 – 45% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Toronto FC 1–1 Philadelphia Union. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Toronto FC45%fair 2.25 · @2.40
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Philadelphia Union35%fair 2.89 · @2.74
2.77Expected goals
1.50Toronto FC xG
1.28Philadelphia Union xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Toronto FC 1.5 – 1.3 Philadelphia Union expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Toronto FC to win✗
45%
2.25
2.40 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.65
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.35
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.41
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Toronto FC / FT Toronto FC✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
10.71
–
Form
Toronto FC – last 4
WLLW
9 Mar
@ FC Cincinnati
1–0
W
1 Mar
@ Vancouver Whitecaps
0–3
L
22 Feb
@ FC Dallas
2–3
L
14 Feb
vs Polessya
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Philadelphia Union – last 6
DLDLLW
19 Apr
vs DC United
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Charlotte
1–2
L
19 Mar
@ Club America
1–1
D
11 Mar
vs Club America
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs San Jose Earthquakes
0–1
L
27 Feb
vs Defence Force
7–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Toronto FC and Philadelphia Union.
What is the prediction for Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union?
On our numbers Toronto FC have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Philadelphia Union 35%.
How many goals will there be in Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Our predicted score is Toronto FC 1–1 Philadelphia Union, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union?
Toronto FC vs Philadelphia Union (Major League Soccer) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at BMO Field.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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