Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.65 – our chance 54% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +44%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultNetherlands to win ✓74% · @1.08
Double chanceNetherlands or draw ✓88% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @2.65
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–3 ✓8% · fair 12.33
Tunisia vs Netherlands preview and prediction
The match
Netherlands travel to Arrowhead Stadium in the World Cup on Friday 26 June (00:00 WAT) to face Tunisia.
Form guide
Tunisia's last 5: LLLLD Most recently they lost to Japan 0–4 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Netherlands's last 5: WDWLD Most recently they beat Sweden 5–1 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Netherlands arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.2 goals: 1.2 for Tunisia and 3.0 for Netherlands. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 73% and both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.65 – 54% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 73% chance at odds of 1.42, above our fair price of 1.37, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tunisia12%fair 8.52 · @19.50
Draw14%fair 7.22 · @10.75
Netherlands74%fair 1.34 · @1.08
4.22Expected goals
1.19Tunisia xG
3.03Netherlands xG
54%Both score
73%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–38%
1–28%
0–37%
0–27%
1–46%
1–15%
From our goals model: Tunisia 1.2 – 3.0 Netherlands expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Netherlands to win✓
74%
1.34
1.08
Double chance
Netherlands or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.01
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
2.65 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
2.05 ▲
Half-time result
Netherlands ahead at half-time✓
57%
1.76
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Netherlands / FT Netherlands✓
52%
1.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–3✓
8%
12.33
–
Form
Tunisia – last 6
LLLLDW
21 Jun
vs Japan
0–4
L
15 Jun
@ Sweden
1–5
L
6 Jun
@ Belgium
0–5
L
1 Jun
@ Austria
0–1
L
1 Apr
@ Canada
0–0
D
29 Mar
@ Haiti
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Netherlands – last 6
WDWLDW
20 Jun
vs Sweden
5–1
W
14 Jun
vs Japan
2–2
D
8 Jun
vs Uzbekistan
2–1
W
3 Jun
vs Algeria
0–1
L
31 Mar
vs Ecuador
1–1
D
27 Mar
vs Norway
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tunisia and Netherlands.
What is the prediction for Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Tunisia vs Netherlands?
On our numbers Tunisia have a 12% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Netherlands 74%.
How many goals will there be in Tunisia vs Netherlands?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 73% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Our predicted score is Tunisia 1–3 Netherlands, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is Tunisia vs Netherlands?
Tunisia vs Netherlands (World Cup) kicks off on Friday 26 June 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Arrowhead Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Japan1
Sweden1
Paraguay0
Australia0
Türkiye3
USA2
Norway1
France4
Senegal5
Iraq0