Japan vs Sweden prediction & analysis
Japan or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
Value bet: Japan to win @ 1.90 – our chance 60% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Japan 2.6 – 1.4 Sweden expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Japan hold the edge on home soil with a 60% chance of winning, against 15% for Sweden.
Japan have taken 10 points from their last 4 matches (3W 1D 0L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.5 per game. Sweden have 10 points from their last 6 (3W 1D 2L), averaging 2.5 scored and 2.3 conceded. Japan come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.9 goals (2.6 for Japan, 1.4 for Sweden). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (8%), 1–1 (7%).
Our pick is Japan or draw at a 85% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is better than our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. For a bigger price, Japan to win at 1.90 is our value angle (60% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Japan to win ✗ | 60% | 1.68 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Double chance | Japan or draw ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | 1.25 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 66% | 1.51 | 1.62 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.55 | 1.75 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 56% | 1.80 | 1.42 |
| Half-time result | Japan ahead at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.07 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Japan / FT Japan ✗ | 42% | 2.39 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 11.31 | – |
Form
Japan – last 4
| 21 Jun | @ Tunisia | 4–0 | W |
| 14 Jun | @ Netherlands | 2–2 | D |
| 31 May | vs Iceland | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Mar | @ England | 1–0 | W |
Sweden – last 6
| 20 Jun | @ Netherlands | 1–5 | L |
| 15 Jun | vs Tunisia | 5–1 | W |
| 4 Jun | vs Greece | 2–2 | D |
| 1 Jun | @ Norway | 1–3 | L |
| 31 Mar | vs Poland | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Mar | @ Ukraine | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Japan and Sweden.
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Iraq0Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Japan vs Sweden?
Our pick is Japan or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Japan vs Sweden?
On our numbers Japan have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Sweden 15%.
How many goals will there be in Japan vs Sweden?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
When is Japan vs Sweden?
Japan vs Sweden (World Cup) kicks off on Friday 26 June 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at AT&T Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.