Padova travel to Stadio Dino Manuzzi in the Serie B on Friday 8 May (19:30 WAT) to face Cesena. Cesena are 11th with 15 points from 11 games (in the bottom half), while Padova sit 10th on 15 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cesena's last 5: DDLLL Most recently they drew with Carrarese 0–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Padova's last 5: WLLDD Most recently they beat Pescara 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded.
Padova arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.0 for Cesena and 0.7 for Padova. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cesena 68%, draw 19%, Padova 13%.
Safer route: Cesena or draw (87%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.70.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Cesena 2–0 Padova. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cesena68%fair 1.46 · @1.50
Draw19%fair 5.37 · @4.40
Padova13%fair 7.66 · @5.70
2.69Expected goals
1.99Cesena xG
0.70Padova xG
55%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–19%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Cesena 2.0 – 0.7 Padova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cesena to win✗
68%
1.46
1.50
Double chance
Cesena or draw✗
87%
1.15
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
1.48
Half-time result
Cesena ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cesena / FT Cesena✗
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.42
–
Form
Cesena – last 5
DDLLL
1 May
@ Carrarese
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Sudtirol
1–1
D
17 Mar
@ Mantova
0–3
L
3 Mar
vs Monza
1–3
L
21 Feb
vs Spezia
2–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Padova – last 5
WLLDD
1 May
vs Pescara
1–0
W
5 Apr
@ Frosinone
0–2
L
17 Mar
@ Venezia
1–3
L
3 Mar
vs Spezia
2–2
D
21 Feb
vs Bari
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
60%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cesena and Padova.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Cesena vs Padova?
On our numbers Cesena have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 19% and Padova 13%.
How many goals will there be in Cesena vs Padova?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cesena vs Padova?
Our predicted score is Cesena 2–0 Padova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Cesena vs Padova?
Cesena vs Padova (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pescara1
Spezia1
Venezia2
Reggiana1
Monza2
Frosinone5