Very strong pick · fair odds 1.15 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Avellino to win @ 1.90 – our chance 65% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultAvellino to win ✓65% · @1.90
Double chanceAvellino or draw ✓87% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓15% · fair 6.68
Avellino vs Modena preview and prediction
The match
Avellino host Modena in the Serie B on Friday 8 May, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT) at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi. Avellino are 5th with 16 points from 11 games (in the top half), while Modena sit 2nd on 23 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Avellino's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Empoli 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Modena's last 5: WLDLW Most recently they beat Reggiana 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.5 goals: 1.8 for Avellino and 0.7 for Modena. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 52%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Avellino 65%, draw 22%, Modena 13%.
Safer route: Avellino or draw (87%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Avellino to win at 1.90 – 65% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Avellino or draw – a 87% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.15, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Avellino 1–0 Modena. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Avellino65%fair 1.53 · @1.90
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.45
Modena13%fair 7.86 · @3.95
2.51Expected goals
1.84Avellino xG
0.67Modena xG
52%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
2–014%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Avellino 1.8 – 0.7 Modena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Avellino to win✓
65%
1.53
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Avellino or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.91
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
71%
1.40
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.87
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.28
Half-time result
Avellino ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Avellino / FT Avellino✓
41%
2.41
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✓
15%
6.68
–
Form
Avellino – last 6
LLLWWL
1 May
@ Empoli
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Palermo
0–2
L
22 Mar
@ Sampdoria
1–2
L
18 Mar
vs Sudtirol
3–2
W
15 Mar
@ Virtus Entella
2–1
W
3 Mar
@ Venezia
0–4
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Modena – last 6
WLDLWL
1 May
vs Reggiana
2–1
W
24 Apr
@ Monza
0–1
L
14 Apr
@ Catanzaro
2–2
D
6 Apr
@ Bari
1–3
L
13 Mar
vs Spezia
3–0
W
3 Mar
@ Virtus Entella
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Avellino and Modena.
Our pick is Avellino or draw with a 87% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Avellino vs Modena?
On our numbers Avellino have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Modena 13%.
How many goals will there be in Avellino vs Modena?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Avellino vs Modena?
Our predicted score is Avellino 1–0 Modena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Avellino vs Modena?
Avellino vs Modena (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Pescara1
Spezia1
Venezia2
Reggiana1
Monza2
Frosinone5