Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultDe Graafschap to win ✓60% · @1.68
Double chanceDe Graafschap or draw ✓81% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗68% · @1.33
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓71% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.72
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ preview and prediction
The match
De Graafschap host Jong AZ in the Eerste Divisie on Monday 6 April, with kick-off at 15:45 (WAT) at De Vijverberg. De Graafschap are 1st with 0 points from 0 games (top of the table), while Jong AZ sit 19th on 0 points (in the bottom three). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
De Graafschap's last 5: DLLDW Most recently they drew with FC Eindhoven 2–2 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Jong AZ's last 5: WDLLL Most recently they beat Helmond Sport 2–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.6 goals: 2.3 for De Graafschap and 1.3 for Jong AZ. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 68% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: De Graafschap 60%, draw 21%, Jong AZ 19%.
Safer route: De Graafschap or draw (81%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (68%) at 1.33.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was De Graafschap or draw – a 81% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: De Graafschap 2–1 Jong AZ. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
De Graafschap60%fair 1.68 · @1.68
Draw21%fair 4.75 · @4.40
Jong AZ19%fair 5.16 · @4.00
3.65Expected goals
2.34De Graafschap xG
1.31Jong AZ xG
68%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
1–18%
3–17%
2–07%
1–06%
2–26%
From our goals model: De Graafschap 2.3 – 1.3 Jong AZ expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
De Graafschap to win✓
60%
1.68
1.68
Double chance
De Graafschap or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
68%
1.47
1.33
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.80
Half-time result
De Graafschap ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT De Graafschap / FT De Graafschap✓
39%
2.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.72
–
Form
De Graafschap – last 6
DLLDWW
3 Apr
@ FC Eindhoven
2–2
D
22 Mar
vs ADO Den Haag
1–2
L
8 Mar
vs Vitesse
1–4
L
27 Feb
@ MVV
3–3
D
20 Feb
vs Jong Utrecht
1–0
W
13 Feb
@ Jong PSV U21
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Jong AZ – last 6
WDLLLD
3 Apr
vs Helmond Sport
2–0
W
16 Mar
vs MVV
1–1
D
13 Mar
@ Waalwijk
1–2
L
9 Mar
vs Emmen
2–3
L
27 Feb
@ Vitesse
0–2
L
23 Feb
vs Den Bosch
2–2
D
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ.
What is the prediction for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our pick is De Graafschap or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
On our numbers De Graafschap have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Jong AZ 19%.
How many goals will there be in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our predicted score is De Graafschap 2–1 Jong AZ, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at De Vijverberg.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Willem II1
Cambuur1
ADO Den Haag4