Good pick · fair odds 1.53 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
2
Value bet: Willem II to win @ 2.75 – our chance 39% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultRoda to win ✗40% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.87
Roda vs Willem II preview and prediction
The match
The Eerste Divisie sees Roda take on Willem II on Monday 6 April, kicking off at 15:45 (WAT) at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Form guide
Roda's last 5: WDLDL Most recently they beat Dordrecht 3–0 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Willem II's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Jong PSV U21 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Willem II arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Roda and 1.5 for Willem II. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 59% and both teams to score at 65%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Roda 40%, draw 21%, Willem II 39%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.45.
Value angle: Willem II to win at 2.75 – 39% on our numbers against 36% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 65% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: Roda 1–1 Willem II. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Roda40%fair 2.53 · @2.25
Draw21%fair 4.68 · @3.75
Willem II39%fair 2.56 · @2.75
2.99Expected goals
1.50Roda xG
1.49Willem II xG
65%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Roda 1.5 – 1.5 Willem II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Roda to win✗
40%
2.53
2.25
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
65%
1.53
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
59%
1.69
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.60
1.57
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Roda / FT Roda✗
22%
4.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.87
–
Form
Roda – last 6
WDLDLD
3 Apr
@ Dordrecht
3–0
W
20 Mar
vs Helmond Sport
1–1
D
16 Mar
vs Vitesse
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Cambuur
1–1
D
6 Mar
vs Jong PSV U21
0–2
L
27 Feb
@ Den Bosch
2–2
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Willem II – last 6
WWWDWL
3 Apr
vs Jong PSV U21
1–0
W
22 Mar
@ MVV
5–0
W
13 Mar
@ FC OSS
3–1
W
8 Mar
vs Den Bosch
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Emmen
3–0
W
24 Feb
vs ADO Den Haag
0–1
L
2.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Roda and Willem II.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Roda vs Willem II?
On our numbers Roda have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Willem II 39%.
How many goals will there be in Roda vs Willem II?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Roda vs Willem II?
Our predicted score is Roda 1–1 Willem II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Roda vs Willem II?
Roda vs Willem II (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:45 (West Africa Time) at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cambuur1
ADO Den Haag4