Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.48 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.48Odds
2
Value bet: Waalwijk to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultWaalwijk to win ✗57% · @1.95
Double chanceEither team to win ✗82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.48
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.17
Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk preview and prediction
The match
Waalwijk travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion in the Eerste Divisie on Monday 6 April (11:15 WAT) to face Helmond Sport. Helmond Sport are 7th with 0 points from 0 games (in the top half), while Waalwijk sit 12th on 0 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Helmond Sport's last 5: LDLLD Most recently they lost to Jong AZ 0–2 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Waalwijk's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat MVV 3–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 2.2 per game.
Waalwijk arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.2 for Helmond Sport and 1.9 for Waalwijk. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Helmond Sport 25%, draw 18%, Waalwijk 57%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.48.
Value angle: Waalwijk to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 65% chance at odds of 1.48. Predicted score: Helmond Sport 1–1 Waalwijk. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Helmond Sport25%fair 4.04 · @3.35
Draw18%fair 5.53 · @3.75
Waalwijk57%fair 1.75 · @1.95
3.08Expected goals
1.16Helmond Sport xG
1.92Waalwijk xG
65%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
1–210%
0–19%
0–28%
1–36%
2–16%
From our goals model: Helmond Sport 1.2 – 1.9 Waalwijk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Waalwijk to win✗
57%
1.75
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.54
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
62%
1.62
1.55
Half-time result
Waalwijk ahead at half-time✗
41%
2.44
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Waalwijk / FT Waalwijk✗
34%
2.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.17
–
Form
Helmond Sport – last 6
LDLLDL
3 Apr
@ Jong AZ
0–2
L
20 Mar
@ Roda
1–1
D
16 Mar
vs Cambuur
0–1
L
13 Mar
@ Jong Utrecht
0–1
L
6 Mar
vs FC OSS
1–1
D
27 Feb
@ Jong Ajax
1–5
L
0.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Waalwijk – last 6
WDWWWD
3 Apr
@ MVV
3–1
W
17 Mar
@ Almere City FC
2–2
D
13 Mar
vs Jong AZ
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ VVV Venlo
3–0
W
27 Feb
vs FC Eindhoven
2–1
W
20 Feb
@ Cambuur
1–1
D
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Helmond Sport and Waalwijk.
What is the prediction for Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.48.
Who will win Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
On our numbers Helmond Sport have a 25% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Waalwijk 57%.
How many goals will there be in Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Our predicted score is Helmond Sport 1–1 Waalwijk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk?
Helmond Sport vs Waalwijk (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 11:15 (West Africa Time) at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Willem II1
Cambuur1
ADO Den Haag4