Good pick · fair odds 1.62 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
1
Value bet: MVV to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultVVV Venlo to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.45
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.72
MVV vs VVV Venlo preview and prediction
The match
VVV Venlo travel to De Geusselt in the Eerste Divisie on Friday 13 March (20:00 WAT) to face MVV. MVV are 8th with 0 points from 0 games (in the top half), while VVV Venlo sit 2nd on 0 points (in the top four). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
MVV's last 3: DDL Most recently they drew with Dordrecht 1–1 away. They average 1.3 scored and 2.3 conceded.
VVV Venlo's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Waalwijk 0–3 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.5 for MVV and 1.6 for VVV Venlo. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 62%.
Betting angles
Win chances: MVV 38%, draw 21%, VVV Venlo 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.45.
Value angle: MVV to win at 3.00 – 38% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 62% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: MVV 1–1 VVV Venlo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
MVV38%fair 2.62 · @3.00
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.75
VVV Venlo40%fair 2.48 · @2.15
3.06Expected goals
1.50MVV xG
1.56VVV Venlo xG
62%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–17%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: MVV 1.5 – 1.6 VVV Venlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
VVV Venlo to win✗
40%
2.48
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
1.45
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.67
1.55
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
1.57
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT VVV Venlo / FT VVV Venlo✗
23%
4.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.72
–
Form
MVV – last 3
DDL
6 Mar
@ Dordrecht
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs De Graafschap
3–3
D
13 Feb
@ ADO Den Haag
0–3
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
VVV Venlo – last 3
LLD
6 Mar
vs Waalwijk
0–3
L
27 Feb
@ ADO Den Haag
0–1
L
20 Feb
vs FC OSS
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MVV and VVV Venlo.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win MVV vs VVV Venlo?
On our numbers MVV have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 21% and VVV Venlo 40%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs VVV Venlo?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MVV vs VVV Venlo?
Our predicted score is MVV 1–1 VVV Venlo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is MVV vs VVV Venlo?
MVV vs VVV Venlo (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 13 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cambuur1
ADO Den Haag1
Willem II3