Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.73 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.73Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultDe Graafschap to win ✗63% · @1.73
Double chanceEither team to win ✗84% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓67% · @1.35
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓68% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.30
MVV vs De Graafschap preview and prediction
The match
MVV host De Graafschap in the Eerste Divisie on Friday 27 February, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at De Geusselt. MVV are 8th with 0 points from 0 games (in the top half), while De Graafschap sit 1st on 0 points (top of the table). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 1.2 for MVV and 2.2 for De Graafschap. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 68% and both teams to score at 67%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: MVV 21%, draw 16%, De Graafschap 63%.
Both teams to score: yes (67%) at 1.35.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was De Graafschap to win – a 63% chance at odds of 1.73, above our fair price of 1.58, so there is value in it. Predicted score: MVV 1–2 De Graafschap. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
MVV21%fair 4.79 · @3.90
Draw16%fair 6.30 · @4.20
De Graafschap63%fair 1.58 · @1.73
3.40Expected goals
1.17MVV xG
2.23De Graafschap xG
67%Both score
68%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–210%
1–19%
0–28%
0–17%
1–37%
0–36%
From our goals model: MVV 1.2 – 2.2 De Graafschap expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
De Graafschap to win✗
63%
1.58
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
84%
1.19
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.48
1.35
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.85
Half-time result
De Graafschap ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.18
–
Half-time / full-time
HT De Graafschap / FT De Graafschap✗
40%
2.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.30
–
Form
MVV – last 1
L
13 Feb
@ ADO Den Haag
0–3
L
0.0Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
De Graafschap – last 2
WW
20 Feb
vs Jong Utrecht
1–0
W
13 Feb
@ Jong PSV U21
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MVV and De Graafschap.
Our pick is De Graafschap to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.73.
Who will win MVV vs De Graafschap?
On our numbers MVV have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 16% and De Graafschap 63%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs De Graafschap?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 68% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MVV vs De Graafschap?
Our predicted score is MVV 1–2 De Graafschap, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is MVV vs De Graafschap?
MVV vs De Graafschap (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
ADO Den Haag1
Willem II3
Cambuur2