Morecambe vs Darlington 1883 prediction & analysis
86%
Footrivo pick
Morecambe or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.30Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 1.80 – our chance 59% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMorecambe to win ✓62% · @1.62
Double chanceMorecambe or draw ✓86% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · fair 1.93
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓59% · @1.80
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.29
Morecambe vs Darlington 1883 preview and prediction
The match
Morecambe host Darlington 1883 in the FA Cup on Saturday 3 October, with kick-off at 15:00 (WAT).
Form guide
Morecambe's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Oxford City 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Darlington 1883's last 5: DWLLL Most recently they drew with Hebburn Town 1–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 2.0 conceded.
Morecambe arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.4 goals: 2.3 for Morecambe and 1.1 for Darlington 1883. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score in 52% of our simulations.
Value angle: Over 2.5 goals at 1.80 – 59% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Morecambe or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.30, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Morecambe 2–1 Darlington 1883. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Morecambe62%fair 1.61 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.90
Darlington 188314%fair 7.29 · @4.20
3.39Expected goals
2.31Morecambe xG
1.08Darlington 1883 xG
52%Both score
59%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–09%
1–18%
1–08%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Morecambe 2.3 – 1.1 Darlington 1883 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Morecambe to win✓
62%
1.61
1.62
Double chance
Morecambe or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.30 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.93
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.80 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Morecambe ahead at half-time✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Morecambe / FT Morecambe✗
42%
2.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.29
–
Form
Morecambe – last 6
DWWLWW
26 Sep
@ Oxford City
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Southport
2–0
W
12 Sep
vs Brackley Town
3–0
W
8 Sep
@ Southport
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs Buxton
4–0
W
31 Aug
@ Chester
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Darlington 1883 – last 6
DWLLLW
26 Sep
vs Hebburn Town
1–1
D
19 Sep
@ Redcar Town
4–2
W
12 Sep
@ Marine
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ Chorley
2–5
L
5 Sep
vs King's Lynn Town
0–2
L
31 Aug
@ Radcliffe
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Morecambe and Darlington 1883.
What is the prediction for Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?
Our pick is Morecambe or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?
On our numbers Morecambe have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Darlington 1883 14%.
How many goals will there be in Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?
Our predicted score is Morecambe 2–1 Darlington 1883, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.4 goals in total.
When is Morecambe vs Darlington 1883?
Morecambe vs Darlington 1883 (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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