FA Cup · England
Brackley Town vs Chelmsford City prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.59 · bookmaker 1.80 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Brackley Town 0.9 – 0.9 Chelmsford City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Brackley Town and Chelmsford City on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Brackley Town have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.8 per game. Chelmsford City have 8 points from their last 6 (1W 5D 0L), averaging 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 1.8 goals (0.9 for Brackley Town, 0.9 for Chelmsford City). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely and at least one clean sheet is the more likely outcome. Most likely scores: 0–0 (17%), 1–0 (15%), 0–1 (15%).
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 63% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.80 is better than our fair price of 1.59, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Brackley Town to win ✗ | 39% | 2.54 | 2.50 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 76% | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 61% | 1.64 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.88 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.80 ▲ |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 89% | 1.12 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 53% | 1.89 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Draw / FT Draw ✗ | 25% | 4.06 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.51 | – |
Form
Brackley Town – last 6
| 29 Sep | vs South Shields | 3–2 | W |
| 26 Sep | vs Scarborough Athletic | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs AFC Portchester | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Morecambe | 0–3 | L |
| 8 Sep | @ Buxton | 0–5 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Harborough Town | 1–0 | W |
Chelmsford City – last 6
| 26 Sep | vs Horsham | 0–0 | D |
| 19 Sep | @ Canvey Island | 1–0 | W |
| 12 Sep | @ Hampton & Richmond | 1–1 | D |
| 8 Sep | @ Dorking Wanderers | 3–3 | D |
| 5 Sep | vs Salisbury | 1–1 | D |
| 31 Aug | @ Weston-super-Mare | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Brackley Town and Chelmsford City.
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What is the prediction for Brackley Town vs Chelmsford City?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.80.
Who will win Brackley Town vs Chelmsford City?
On our numbers Brackley Town have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Chelmsford City 37%.
How many goals will there be in Brackley Town vs Chelmsford City?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
When is Brackley Town vs Chelmsford City?
Brackley Town vs Chelmsford City (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.