FA Cup · England
Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting prediction & analysis
Bury to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.91 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bury 2.5 – 1.4 Bromsgrove Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Bury are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 23% for Bromsgrove Sporting.
Bury have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 4.7 and conceding 1.0 per game. Bromsgrove Sporting have 16 points from their last 6 (5W 1D 0L), averaging 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 4.0 goals (2.5 for Bury, 1.4 for Bromsgrove Sporting). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9%), 3–1 (7%), 1–1 (7%).
Our pick is Bury to win at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.91 is better than our fair price of 1.56, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bury to win ✓ | 64% | 1.56 | 1.91 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.22 ▲ |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.80 | – |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 91% | 1.10 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 69% | 1.44 | 1.50 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Over 3.5 goals ✗ | 56% | 1.77 | – |
| Half-time result | Bury ahead at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Bury / FT Bury ✓ | 41% | 2.47 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✓ | 9% | 11.54 | – |
Form
Bury – last 6
| 26 Sep | vs Gainsborough Trinity | 3–3 | D |
| 19 Sep | vs Workington | 5–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs AFC Emley | 4–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Wythenshawe Amateurs | 8–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Hyde United | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Ilkeston Town | 7–0 | W |
Bromsgrove Sporting – last 6
| 29 Sep | vs Leamington | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Sep | @ Racing Club Warwick | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Sep | @ Stratford Town | 3–2 | W |
| 19 Sep | vs Leek Town | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Bury Town | 1–0 | W |
| 5 Sep | vs Nuneaton Town | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bury and Bromsgrove Sporting.
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What is the prediction for Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
Our pick is Bury to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
On our numbers Bury have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 13% and Bromsgrove Sporting 23%.
How many goals will there be in Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?
Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.