Value bet: Deportivo Maldonado to win @ 2.50 – our chance 44% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✗44% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗13% · fair 7.50
Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Maldonado travel to Estadio Luis Franzini in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 13 September (20:00 WAT) to face Defensor Sporting. Defensor Sporting are 13th with 12 points from 13 games (in the bottom half), while Deportivo Maldonado sit 4th on 22 points (in the top four).
Form guide
Defensor Sporting's last 5: DDLDD Most recently they drew with Cerro Largo 1–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Deportivo Maldonado's last 5: WWWLD Most recently they beat Wanderers 4–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Maldonado arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.0 for Defensor Sporting and 1.2 for Deportivo Maldonado. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 38%, both teams to score at 50%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Deportivo Maldonado to win at 2.50 – 44% on our numbers against 40% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.91. Predicted score: Defensor Sporting 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensor Sporting32%fair 3.08 · @2.75
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Deportivo Maldonado44%fair 2.26 · @2.50
2.22Expected goals
0.99Defensor Sporting xG
1.23Deportivo Maldonado xG
50%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–011%
1–011%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.0 – 1.2 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win✗
44%
2.26
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.91
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado✗
24%
4.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
13%
7.50
–
Form
Defensor Sporting – last 6
DDLDDL
9 Sep
@ Cerro Largo
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Central Espanol
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Atletico Torque
1–3
L
25 Aug
vs Rentistas
0–0
D
22 Aug
@ Cerro Largo
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–4
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
WWWLDW
10 Sep
vs Wanderers
4–1
W
5 Sep
vs Wanderers
2–0
W
2 Sep
@ Cerrito
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Juventud
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Penarol
0–0
D
16 Aug
@ Progreso
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensor Sporting and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Deportivo Maldonado 44%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
