Value bet: Cerro Largo to win @ 2.25 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerro Largo to win ✗48% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✗76% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.08
Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol preview and prediction
The match
Central Espanol travel to Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla in the Primera División Apertura on Sunday 13 September (00:00 WAT) to face Cerro Largo. Cerro Largo are 15th with 9 points from 13 games (in the bottom three), while Central Espanol sit 16th on 8 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Cerro Largo's last 5: DLDLD Most recently they drew with Defensor Sporting 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Central Espanol's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Racing Montevideo 4–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Central Espanol arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.2 points a game against 0.7.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 25 July 2026, finished Central Espanol 0–1 Cerro Largo. Across their last 2 meetings Cerro Largo have won 2, Central Espanol 0, with 0 draws and 2.5 goals per game; both teams scored in 1 of them.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.3 for Cerro Largo and 0.9 for Central Espanol. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerro Largo 48%, draw 24%, Central Espanol 28%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Cerro Largo to win at 2.25 – 48% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.88, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cerro Largo 1–1 Central Espanol. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerro Largo48%fair 2.07 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @2.88
Central Espanol28%fair 3.59 · @3.30
2.24Expected goals
1.33Cerro Largo xG
0.91Central Espanol xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–011%
0–110%
2–09%
2–19%
From our goals model: Cerro Largo 1.3 – 0.9 Central Espanol expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol?
On our numbers Cerro Largo have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Central Espanol 28%.
How many goals will there be in Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol?
Our predicted score is Cerro Largo 1–1 Central Espanol, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol?
Cerro Largo vs Central Espanol (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Antonio Eleuterio Ubilla.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
