Primera División Apertura · Uruguay · Parque Abraham PaladinoProgreso vs Cerro prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Fair pick · fair odds 1.89 · bookmaker 2.00 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Progreso 1.2 – 1.0 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Progreso hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 34% for Cerro.
Progreso have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.2 per game. Cerro have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
We expect around 2.2 goals (1.2 for Progreso, 1.0 for Cerro). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (13%), 1–1 (13%), 0–0 (11%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 53% chance – the bookmaker price of 2.00 is better than our fair price of 1.89, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Progreso to win ✗ | 43% | 2.32 | 2.30 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | 1.35 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 53% | 1.89 | 2.00 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.57 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 63% | 1.59 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 83% | 1.21 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 48% | 2.10 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Progreso / FT Progreso ✗ | 23% | 4.38 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 13% | 7.43 | – |
Form
Progreso – last 6
| 7 Sep | @ Albion FC | 1–0 | W |
| 3 Sep | @ Albion FC | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | vs Danubio | 1–0 | W |
| 26 Aug | vs CA River Plate | 0–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Club Nacional | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | vs Deportivo Maldonado | 0–2 | L |
Cerro – last 6
| 10 Sep | vs Cerrito | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Racing Montevideo | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Sep | @ Wanderers | 1–1 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Boston River | 1–1 | D |
| 21 Aug | @ Liverpool Montevideo | 0–4 | L |
| 15 Aug | vs Albion FC | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Cerro.
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Progreso vs Cerro?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Progreso vs Cerro?
On our numbers Progreso have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cerro 34%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
When is Progreso vs Cerro?
Progreso vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.