Primera División Apertura · UruguayPenarol vs Albion FC prediction & analysis
Penarol to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 52% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Penarol 1.9 – 0.6 Albion FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Penarol are clear favourites at home with a 67% chance of winning, against 10% for Albion FC.
Penarol have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.7 per game. Albion FC have 4 points from their last 6 (1W 1D 4L), averaging 0.8 scored and 1.3 conceded. Penarol come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (1.9 for Penarol, 0.6 for Albion FC). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 52%. Most likely scores: 1–0 (15%), 2–0 (15%), 1–1 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Penarol have won 1, Albion FC have won 0 and 0 ended level, with an average of 1.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Penarol to win at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.50. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.05 is our value angle (52% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Penarol to win ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.44 |
| Double chance | Penarol or draw ✓ | 90% | 1.11 | 1.10 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 52% | 1.93 | 2.05 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 71% | 1.40 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 54% | 1.84 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | – |
| Half-time result | Penarol ahead at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.11 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Penarol / FT Penarol ✓ | 43% | 2.30 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 15% | 6.46 | – |
Form
Penarol – last 6
| 5 Sep | @ Danubio | 4–0 | W |
| 3 Sep | @ Atenas | 2–2 | D |
| 30 Aug | vs Club Nacional | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Aug | vs Atletico Torque | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Aug | @ Deportivo Maldonado | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | vs Central Espanol | 2–1 | W |
Albion FC – last 6
| 7 Sep | vs Progreso | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Sep | vs Progreso | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | @ Racing Montevideo | 0–1 | L |
| 27 Aug | @ Club Nacional | 0–0 | D |
| 21 Aug | vs Boston River | 2–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | @ Cerro | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Mar 2026 | Albion FC v Penarol | 0–1 |
Primera División Apertura table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Penarol | 35 | +24 | 65 |
| 2 |  Deportivo Maldonado | 35 | +22 | 63 |
| 3 |  Atletico Torque | 35 | +18 | 63 |
| 4 |  Club Nacional | 35 | +11 | 61 |
| 5 |  Racing Montevideo | 35 | +14 | 60 |
| 6 |  Liverpool Montevideo | 35 | +16 | 59 |
| 7 |  Wanderers | 35 | -2 | 51 |
| 8 |  Albion FC | 35 | +3 | 47 |
| 9 |  Juventud | 35 | -6 | 41 |
| 10 |  Central Espanol | 35 | -13 | 41 |
| 11 |  Defensor Sporting | 35 | -8 | 39 |
| 12 |  Cerro Largo | 35 | -8 | 37 |
| 13 |  Boston River | 35 | -13 | 37 |
| 14 |  Cerro | 35 | -24 | 37 |
| 15 |  Progreso | 35 | -18 | 35 |
| 16 |  Danubio | 35 | -16 | 32 |
More Primera División Apertura predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Penarol vs Albion FC?
Our pick is Penarol to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Penarol vs Albion FC?
On our numbers Penarol have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Albion FC 10%.
How many goals will there be in Penarol vs Albion FC?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
When is Penarol vs Albion FC?
Penarol vs Albion FC (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.