Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Riga to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultRiga to win ✗56% · @1.91
Double chanceRiga or draw ✓82% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.06
Riga vs Kairat Almaty preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa Conference League sees Riga take on Kairat Almaty on Thursday 15 October, kicking off at 17:45 (WAT) at Skonto. Riga are 19th with 3 points from 3 games (in the bottom half), while Kairat Almaty sit 27th on 2 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Riga's last 5: WWWWD Most recently they beat Tukums 2–0 away. They average 1.5 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Kairat Almaty's last 5: WLLWW Most recently they beat Zhetysu 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.8 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.9 for Riga and 1.1 for Kairat Almaty. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 54%.
Value angle: Riga to win at 1.91 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Riga or draw – a 82% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Riga56%fair 1.78 · @1.91
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.25
Kairat Almaty18%fair 5.53 · @4.00
3.00Expected goals
1.95Riga xG
1.05Kairat Almaty xG
54%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–110%
2–110%
1–010%
2–09%
3–16%
3–06%
From our goals model: Riga 1.9 – 1.1 Kairat Almaty expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Riga to win✗
56%
1.78
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Riga or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.84
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Riga ahead at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Riga / FT Riga✗
37%
2.73
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.06
–
Form
Riga – last 6
WWWWDD
10 Oct
@ Tukums
2–0
W
3 Oct
@ Aris
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ FS Jelgava
1–0
W
15 Sep
@ Super Nova
1–0
W
11 Sep
vs Auda
2–2
D
7 Sep
vs BFC Daugavpils
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kairat Almaty – last 6
WLLWWW
10 Oct
vs Zhetysu
1–0
W
17 Sep
@ FC Astana
0–1
L
13 Sep
vs FK Tobol Kostanay
1–4
L
9 Sep
vs Zhenys
3–0
W
5 Sep
@ Kaspiy
3–0
W
31 Aug
@ Yelimay Semey
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Riga and Kairat Almaty.
Our pick is Riga or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
On our numbers Riga have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Kairat Almaty 18%.
How many goals will there be in Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
Our predicted score is Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
Riga vs Kairat Almaty (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Skonto.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
