Ajax travel to Stadion Poljud in the UEFA Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October (17:45 WAT) to face HNK Hajduk Split. HNK Hajduk Split are 13th with 6 points from 3 games (in the top half), while Ajax sit 11th on 6 points (in the top half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
HNK Hajduk Split's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ajax's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with NEC Nijmegen 1–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.
HNK Hajduk Split arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 1.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 5.2 goals: 1.9 for HNK Hajduk Split and 3.3 for Ajax. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 89% and both teams to score at 70%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 70% chance at odds of 1.62, above our fair price of 1.42, so there is value in it. Predicted score: HNK Hajduk Split 1–3 Ajax. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
HNK Hajduk Split16%fair 6.23 · @4.80
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @4.00
Ajax60%fair 1.66 · @1.62
5.20Expected goals
1.92HNK Hajduk Split xG
3.28Ajax xG
70%Both score
89%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–36%
2–36%
1–26%
2–25%
1–45%
2–45%
From our goals model: HNK Hajduk Split 1.9 – 3.3 Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✗
60%
1.66
1.62
Double chance
Ajax or draw✗
84%
1.19
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.42
1.62 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
97%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
44%
2.28
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–3✗
6%
16.05
–
Form
HNK Hajduk Split – last 6
WLWWWW
10 Oct
vs Dinamo Zagreb
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ HNK Rijeka
0–3
L
13 Sep
vs NK Slaven Belupo
1–0
W
8 Sep
@ Vardarac
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Rudes
4–0
W
31 Aug
vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ajax – last 6
DDWWLW
10 Oct
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Willem II
5–1
W
12 Sep
@ Fortuna Sittard
5–1
W
5 Sep
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–3
L
30 Aug
@ Telstar
4–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax.
What is the prediction for HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
On our numbers HNK Hajduk Split have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ajax 60%.
How many goals will there be in HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
We expect about 5.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 89% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
Our predicted score is HNK Hajduk Split 1–3 Ajax, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.2 goals in total.
When is HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Poljud.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
