FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda Prediction, Odds & Analysis – 15 Oct 2026

Quick tips for this match

ResultDraw ✗56% · @3.40

Double chanceFK Crvena Zvezda or draw ✗79% · @1.44

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.57

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–1 ✗11% · fair 8.93

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda preview and prediction

The match

The UEFA Europa Conference League sees FC Lugano take on FK Crvena Zvezda on Thursday 15 October, kicking off at 17:45 (WAT) at AIL Arena. FC Lugano are 1st with 9 points from 3 games (top of the table), while FK Crvena Zvezda sit 15th on 4 points (in the top half).

Form guide

FC Lugano's last 5: WLWWD Most recently they beat FC Luzern 4–0 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 3.0 goals a game.

FK Crvena Zvezda's last 5: WWWDW Most recently they beat Radnicki 1923 3–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 4. They average 1.8 scored and 0.2 conceded. 5 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.

FK Crvena Zvezda arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 2.2.

Goals outlook

Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for FC Lugano and 1.5 for FK Crvena Zvezda. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.

Betting angles

Win chances: FC Lugano 21%, draw 56%, FK Crvena Zvezda 23%.
Safer route: FK Crvena Zvezda or draw (79%) at 1.44.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Draw at 3.40 – 56% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.

Our prediction

Our pre-match pick was FK Crvena Zvezda or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.44, above our fair price of 1.27, so there is value in it. Predicted score: FC Lugano 1–1 FK Crvena Zvezda. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.

Win chances

FC Lugano21%fair 4.75 · @2.62

Draw56%fair 1.78 · @3.40

FK Crvena Zvezda23%fair 4.42 · @2.45

3.00Expected goals

1.48FC Lugano xG

1.52FK Crvena Zvezda xG

65%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–111%

1–28%

2–18%

0–18%

1–07%

2–26%

From our goals model: FC Lugano 1.5 – 1.5 FK Crvena Zvezda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Every market, with fair odds

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Draw ✗	56%	1.78	3.40 ▲
Double chance	FK Crvena Zvezda or draw ✗	79%	1.27	1.44 ▲
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	65%	1.54	1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	58%	1.73	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	65%	1.55	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	40%	2.52	–
Half-time / full-time	HT FK Crvena Zvezda / FT FK Crvena Zvezda ✗	23%	4.40	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–1 ✗	11%	8.93	–

Form

FC Lugano – last 6

WLWWDW

10 Oct	vs FC Luzern	4–0	W
2 Oct	vs Hellas Verona	1–3	L
20 Sep	@ Lausanne	4–0	W
16 Sep	vs FC ST. Gallen	4–1	W
12 Sep	vs BSC Young Boys	2–2	D
6 Sep	@ FC Basel 1893	3–1	W

3.0Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

FK Crvena Zvezda – last 6

WWWDWW

10 Oct	@ Radnicki 1923	3–0	W
20 Sep	vs Radnicki NIS	3–0	W
13 Sep	@ IMT Novi Beograd	1–0	W
10 Sep	@ Radnik Surdulica	0–0	D
6 Sep	vs FK Partizan	2–1	W
30 Aug	@ Zemun	2–0	W

1.8Scored / game

0.2Conceded / game

17%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Lugano	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Panathinaikos	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Twente	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Brann	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	FC Copenhagen	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Universitatea Craiova	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Mjallby AIF	3	2	1	0	+4	7
10	St. Truiden	3	2	1	0	+3	7
11	Ajax	3	2	0	1	+6	6
12	Trabzonspor	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	HNK Hajduk Split	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	SC Freiburg	3	2	0	1	-1	6
15	FK Crvena Zvezda	3	1	1	1	0	4
16	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	0	4
17	SC Braga	3	1	1	1	-1	4
18	Gent	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Riga	3	0	3	0	0	3
20	FC Thun	3	1	0	2	0	3
21	Borac Banja Luka	3	1	0	2	-1	3
22	Lincoln Red Imps FC	3	1	0	2	-3	3
23	FK Jablonec	3	0	2	1	-1	2
24	Aarhus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
25	FC Nordsjaelland	3	0	2	1	-2	2
26	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	3	0	2	1	-2	2
27	Kairat Almaty	3	0	2	1	-4	2
28	CSKA Sofia	3	0	1	2	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	3	0	1	2	-3	1
30	Pafos	3	0	1	2	-4	1
31	Getafe	3	0	1	2	-4	1
32	Heart Of Midlothian	3	0	1	2	-4	1
33	KuPS	3	0	1	2	-4	1
34	FC Midtjylland	3	0	1	2	-6	1
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	3	0	0	3	-5	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Team

Pts

Universitatea Craiova

-1

-1

-1

-1

-3

-1

-1

-2

-2

-4

-2

-3

-4

-4

-4

-4

-6

Inter Club d'Escaldes

-5

Kauno Žalgiris

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

Our pick is FK Crvena Zvezda or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

On our numbers FC Lugano have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 56% and FK Crvena Zvezda 23%.

How many goals will there be in FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

Our predicted score is FC Lugano 1–1 FK Crvena Zvezda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

FC Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at AIL Arena.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

By day

Match result

Goals

Exact outcomes