Value bet: Sturm Graz to win @ 3.40 – our chance 37% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMarseille to win ✗40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.16
Sturm Graz vs Marseille preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa League sees Sturm Graz take on Marseille on Thursday 22 October, kicking off at 17:45 (WAT) at Stadion Graz-Liebenau. Sturm Graz are 24th with 4 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Marseille sit 31st on 3 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sturm Graz's last 5: WLWWL Most recently they beat Grazer AK 6–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Marseille's last 5: WLWLL Most recently they beat Angers 5–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Sturm Graz arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Sturm Graz and 1.2 for Marseille. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 58%.
Value angle: Sturm Graz to win at 3.40 – 37% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 58% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Sturm Graz 1–1 Marseille. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sturm Graz37%fair 2.73 · @3.40
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.40
Marseille40%fair 2.47 · @2.05
2.25Expected goals
1.09Sturm Graz xG
1.16Marseille xG
58%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–011%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 1.1 – 1.2 Marseille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✗
40%
2.47
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✗
21%
4.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.16
–
Form
Sturm Graz – last 6
WLWWLD
18 Oct
vs Grazer AK
6–1
W
15 Oct
@ Bournemouth
0–3
L
10 Oct
@ Austria Vienna
2–0
W
2 Oct
vs Floridsdorfer AC
3–1
W
20 Sep
@ Red Bull Salzburg
0–3
L
16 Sep
vs Rennes
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Marseille – last 6
WLWLLL
18 Oct
@ Angers
5–2
W
15 Oct
vs Olympiakos Piraeus
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Estac Troyes
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Paris Saint Germain
1–2
L
17 Sep
@ Beşiktaş
1–4
L
11 Sep
@ Rennes
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sturm Graz and Marseille.
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marseille 40%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 1–1 Marseille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Sturm Graz vs Marseille (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Graz-Liebenau.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
