Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultSturm Graz to win ✗65% · @1.50
Double chanceSturm Graz or draw ✗88% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.29
Sturm Graz vs Celje preview and prediction
The match
Celje travel to Stadion Graz-Liebenau in the UEFA Europa League on Thursday 5 November (21:00 WAT) to face Sturm Graz. Sturm Graz are 24th with 4 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Celje sit 25th on 4 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Sturm Graz's last 5: DLDWW Most recently they drew with Wolfsberger AC 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Celje's last 5: WDWDD Most recently they beat Nafta 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Sturm Graz and 0.7 for Celje. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 55%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sturm Graz 65%, draw 23%, Celje 12%.
Safer route: Sturm Graz or draw (88%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.57, above our fair price of 1.50, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Sturm Graz 1–0 Celje. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sturm Graz65%fair 1.53 · @1.50
Draw23%fair 4.44 · @4.33
Celje12%fair 8.23 · @6.00
2.64Expected goals
1.93Sturm Graz xG
0.71Celje xG
56%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–09%
0–07%
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 1.9 – 0.7 Celje expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sturm Graz to win✗
65%
1.53
1.50
Double chance
Sturm Graz or draw✗
88%
1.14
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.50
1.57
Half-time result
Sturm Graz ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sturm Graz / FT Sturm Graz✗
42%
2.36
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
14%
7.29
–
Form
Sturm Graz – last 6
DLDWWL
1 Nov
@ Wolfsberger AC
1–1
D
29 Oct
@ Austria Lustenau
2–3
L
25 Oct
vs Ried
2–2
D
22 Oct
vs Marseille
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Grazer AK
6–1
W
15 Oct
@ Bournemouth
0–3
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Celje – last 6
WDWDDL
1 Nov
vs Nafta
4–0
W
28 Oct
@ Olimpija Ljubljana
1–1
D
25 Oct
@ Korotan Prevalje
2–0
W
22 Oct
vs Red Bull Salzburg
2–2
D
18 Oct
@ Maribor
0–0
D
15 Oct
vs Omonia Nicosia
0–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sturm Graz and Celje.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Celje 12%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Celje?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 1–0 Celje, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Sturm Graz vs Celje (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Graz-Liebenau.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
