Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia prediction & analysis
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.28 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Jagiellonia to win @ 3.70 – our chance 35% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +29%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Levski Sofia 1.5 – 1.3 Jagiellonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Levski Sofia hold the edge on home soil with a 42% chance of winning, against 35% for Jagiellonia.
Levski Sofia have taken 14 points from their last 6 matches (4W 2D 0L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 per game. Jagiellonia have 12 points from their last 6 (4W 0D 2L), averaging 2.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
We expect around 2.7 goals (1.5 for Levski Sofia, 1.3 for Jagiellonia). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 51%, both teams to score at 59%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12%), 1–0 (9%), 2–1 (9%).
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Jagiellonia to win at 3.70 is our value angle (35% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Levski Sofia to win ✓ | 42% | 2.36 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.30 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 59% | 1.68 | 1.70 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 75% | 1.33 | 1.28 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.97 | 1.91 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 70% | 1.42 | 1.36 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 42% | 2.39 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Levski Sofia / FT Levski Sofia ✗ | 24% | 4.15 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✓ | 9% | 10.63 | – |
Form
Levski Sofia – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Dunav Ruse | 1–0 | W |
| 27 Oct | @ Arda Kardzhali | 1–1 | D |
| 22 Oct | @ Plzen | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ Spartak Pleven | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | @ NEC Nijmegen | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | @ Cherno More Varna | 2–0 | W |
Jagiellonia – last 6
| 31 Oct | @ Wieczysta Kraków | 3–1 | W |
| 28 Oct | @ Lechia Gdansk | 6–0 | W |
| 25 Oct | vs Wisla Plock | 1–0 | W |
| 22 Oct | vs Anderlecht | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | @ Zaglebie Lubin | 0–1 | L |
| 15 Oct | vs Ararat-Armenia | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Levski Sofia and Jagiellonia.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
On our numbers Levski Sofia have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Jagiellonia 35%.
How many goals will there be in Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
When is Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia?
Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Vasil Levski National Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.