Real Sociedad vs Lyon prediction & analysis
Real Sociedad to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.65 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Real Sociedad 2.4 – 1.1 Lyon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Real Sociedad are clear favourites at home with a 64% chance of winning, against 13% for Lyon.
Real Sociedad have taken 13 points from their last 6 matches (4W 1D 1L), scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.3 per game. Lyon have 9 points from their last 6 (3W 0D 3L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded. Real Sociedad come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.4 goals (2.4 for Real Sociedad, 1.1 for Lyon). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on this projection. Recent matches involving both teams have mostly gone over 2.5. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10%), 2–0 (9%), 1–1 (8%).
Our pick is Real Sociedad to win at a 64% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.65 is better than our fair price of 1.55, so there is value in it.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Real Sociedad to win ✗ | 64% | 1.55 | 1.65 ▲ |
| Double chance | Real Sociedad or draw ✓ | 87% | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 63% | 1.59 | 1.57 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | 1.17 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✗ | 64% | 1.55 | 1.53 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 57% | 1.76 | 1.62 |
| Half-time result | Real Sociedad ahead at half-time ✓ | 50% | 2.02 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Real Sociedad / FT Real Sociedad ✗ | 44% | 2.27 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 10% | 10.38 | – |
Form
Real Sociedad – last 6
| 1 Nov | @ Athletic Club | 1–2 | L |
| 25 Oct | vs Levante | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Oct | @ Lillestrom | 6–0 | W |
| 18 Oct | @ Malaga | 5–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | @ Union St. Gilloise | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Oct | vs Deportivo La Coruna | 3–2 | W |
Lyon – last 6
| 31 Oct | vs Angers | 2–0 | W |
| 26 Oct | @ Paris Saint Germain | 0–2 | L |
| 22 Oct | @ 1899 Hoffenheim | 0–3 | L |
| 18 Oct | vs Nice | 2–1 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Crystal Palace | 3–2 | W |
| 9 Oct | @ Lens | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Real Sociedad and Lyon.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Our pick is Real Sociedad to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.65.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
On our numbers Real Sociedad have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lyon 13%.
How many goals will there be in Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 64% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
When is Real Sociedad vs Lyon?
Real Sociedad vs Lyon (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Anoeta Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.