Bournemouth vs AC Milan prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Bournemouth 1.7 – 1.3 AC Milan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Bournemouth hold the edge on home soil with a 50% chance of winning, against 30% for AC Milan.
Bournemouth have taken 10 points from their last 6 matches (3W 1D 2L), scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.5 per game. AC Milan have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
We expect around 3.0 goals (1.7 for Bournemouth, 1.3 for AC Milan). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11%), 2–1 (9%), 1–0 (9%).
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 62% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.62 is close to our fair price of 1.60.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bournemouth to win ✓ | 50% | 2.01 | 2.00 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.26 | 1.29 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 62% | 1.60 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 80% | 1.25 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 58% | 1.73 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.55 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 39% | 2.54 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Bournemouth / FT Bournemouth ✓ | 29% | 3.40 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–1 ✗ | 9% | 10.56 | – |
Form
Bournemouth – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Sunderland | 2–0 | W |
| 15 Oct | vs Sturm Graz | 3–0 | W |
| 10 Oct | @ Chelsea | 1–5 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Liverpool | 0–1 | L |
| 17 Sep | @ Real Sociedad | 2–1 | W |
| 12 Sep | vs Brentford | 2–2 | D |
AC Milan – last 6
| 18 Oct | vs Atalanta | 3–2 | W |
| 15 Oct | @ Red Bull Salzburg | 4–0 | W |
| 11 Oct | @ Sassuolo | 1–1 | D |
| 20 Sep | vs Lecce | 3–0 | W |
| 16 Sep | vs Benfica | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Lazio | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Bournemouth and AC Milan.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Benfica | 4 | +10 | 12 |
| 2 |  Bournemouth | 4 | +9 | 12 |
| 3 |  Ferencvarosi TC | 4 | +8 | 12 |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 4 | +8 | 10 |
| 5 |  Juventus | 4 | +7 | 10 |
| 6 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 4 | +3 | 10 |
| 7 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | +7 | 9 |
| 8 |  Beşiktaş | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 |  Dinamo Zagreb | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 10 |  Levski Sofia | 4 | +1 | 7 |
| 11 |  Sunderland | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 |  Lyon | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 15 |  Anderlecht | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 16 |  OFI | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |  Rennes | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 18 |  Omonia Nicosia | 4 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |  Torreense | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 20 |  Real Sociedad | 4 | +5 | 5 |
| 21 |  Crystal Palace | 4 | +3 | 5 |
| 22 |  Sparta Praha | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 24 |  Sturm Graz | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 |  Celje | 4 | -4 | 4 |
| 26 |  Red Bull Salzburg | 4 | -5 | 4 |
| 27 |  Celta Vigo | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 |  AC Milan | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 |  Jagiellonia | 4 | -3 | 3 |
| 30 |  Plzen | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 31 |  Marseille | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 32 |  Celtic | 4 | -5 | 3 |
| 33 |  Hapoel Beer Sheva | 4 | -7 | 1 |
| 34 |  Lillestrom | 4 | -8 | 1 |
| 35 |  Lech Poznan | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 36 |  Ararat-Armenia | 4 | -10 | 0 |
More UEFA Europa League predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
On our numbers Bournemouth have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 21% and AC Milan 30%.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
When is Bournemouth vs AC Milan?
Bournemouth vs AC Milan (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Vitality Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.