Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultBenfica to win ✓76% · @1.14
Double chanceBenfica or draw ✓92% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗9% · fair 11.73
Benfica vs Lech Poznan preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Europa League sees Benfica take on Lech Poznan on Thursday 5 November, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Estádio da Luz. Benfica are 1st with 12 points from 4 games (top of the table), while Lech Poznan sit 35th on 1 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Benfica's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Alverca 1–0 at home. At home they have won 4 and lost 0 of their last 4. They are scoring freely – 2.8 goals a game.
Lech Poznan's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat Wisla Krakow 3–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Benfica arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.9 goals: 3.0 for Benfica and 1.0 for Lech Poznan. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score in 60% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Benfica 76%, draw 16%, Lech Poznan 8%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.95.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.95 – 60% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Benfica 3–0 Lech Poznan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Benfica76%fair 1.31 · @1.14
Draw16%fair 6.34 · @9.00
Lech Poznan8%fair 12.53 · @15.00
3.95Expected goals
2.97Benfica xG
0.98Lech Poznan xG
60%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–09%
3–08%
2–18%
3–18%
4–06%
4–16%
From our goals model: Benfica 3.0 – 1.0 Lech Poznan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
76%
1.31
1.14
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
92%
1.09
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.08
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.73
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✓
59%
1.70
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✓
55%
1.83
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
9%
11.73
–
Form
Benfica – last 6
WWWWWW
2 Nov
vs Alverca
1–0
W
29 Oct
vs GIL Vicente
4–1
W
26 Oct
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
22 Oct
@ Omonia Nicosia
4–1
W
15 Oct
vs Celtic
4–1
W
11 Oct
vs Vitória SC
2–0
W
2.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lech Poznan – last 6
WLWDWL
31 Oct
vs Wisla Krakow
3–1
W
28 Oct
@ Siarka Tarnobrzeg
0–1
L
25 Oct
@ Legia Warszawa
2–1
W
22 Oct
vs Sunderland
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Korona Kielce
6–1
W
15 Oct
vs Bayer Leverkusen
0–4
L
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and Lech Poznan.
What is the prediction for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
On our numbers Benfica have a 76% chance of winning, the draw 16% and Lech Poznan 8%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Our predicted score is Benfica 3–0 Lech Poznan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Benfica vs Lech Poznan (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Luz.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
