Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Napoli to win @ 3.10 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVillarreal to win ✓39% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.81
Villarreal vs Napoli preview and prediction
The match
Villarreal host Napoli in the UEFA Champions League on Tuesday 13 October, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio de la Cerámica. Villarreal are 28th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Napoli sit 27th on 3 points (in the bottom half). Only goal difference separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Villarreal's last 5: LWWLL Most recently they lost to Real Madrid 0–1 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Napoli's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Frosinone 3–0 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 1.5 for Villarreal and 1.5 for Napoli. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 63%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Villarreal 39%, draw 23%, Napoli 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.57.
Value angle: Napoli to win at 3.10 – 38% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 63% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Villarreal 1–1 Napoli. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Villarreal39%fair 2.55 · @2.10
Draw23%fair 4.43 · @3.50
Napoli38%fair 2.62 · @3.10
3.00Expected goals
1.51Villarreal xG
1.49Napoli xG
63%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–18%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Villarreal 1.5 – 1.5 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win✓
39%
2.55
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal✓
23%
4.43
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.81
–
Form
Villarreal – last 6
LWWLLL
10 Oct
@ Real Madrid
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Levante
3–1
W
17 Sep
@ Malaga
3–1
W
14 Sep
vs Real Betis
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ Borussia Dortmund
2–3
L
5 Sep
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Napoli – last 6
WDWLLL
10 Oct
vs Frosinone
3–0
W
20 Sep
@ Fiorentina
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Bologna
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ Inter
2–3
L
30 Aug
vs Como
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Villarreal and Napoli.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Villarreal vs Napoli?
On our numbers Villarreal have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Napoli 38%.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Napoli?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villarreal vs Napoli?
Our predicted score is Villarreal 1–1 Napoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Villarreal vs Napoli?
Villarreal vs Napoli (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la Cerámica.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
