Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.15 – our chance 54% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArsenal to win ✓71% · @1.20
Double chanceArsenal or draw ✓89% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗54% · @2.15
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗13% · fair 7.97
Arsenal vs Lille preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Champions League sees Arsenal take on Lille on Tuesday 13 October, kicking off at 20:00 (WAT) at Emirates Stadium. Arsenal are 3rd with 10 points from 4 games (in the top four), while Lille sit 35th on 1 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Arsenal's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Leeds 2–1 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Lille's last 5: WWLWL Most recently they beat Le Havre 1–0 at home. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Arsenal arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.5 points a game against 2.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.2 for Arsenal and 0.8 for Lille. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 58% and both teams to score at 54%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Arsenal 71%, draw 18%, Lille 11%.
Both teams to score: yes (54%) at 2.15.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.15 – 54% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Arsenal to win – a 71% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Arsenal 2–0 Lille. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Arsenal71%fair 1.41 · @1.20
Draw18%fair 5.47 · @6.00
Lille11%fair 9.28 · @13.00
3.00Expected goals
2.24Arsenal xG
0.76Lille xG
54%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–013%
1–011%
2–19%
3–09%
1–18%
3–17%
From our goals model: Arsenal 2.2 – 0.8 Lille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Arsenal to win✓
71%
1.41
1.20
Double chance
Arsenal or draw✓
89%
1.12
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
54%
1.85
2.15 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Half-time result
Arsenal ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.94
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Arsenal / FT Arsenal✗
47%
2.11
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
13%
7.97
–
Form
Arsenal – last 6
WLWWWW
10 Oct
vs Leeds
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ Brighton
0–3
L
15 Sep
@ Ipswich
4–2
W
12 Sep
@ Sunderland
2–0
W
9 Sep
@ Napoli
1–0
W
6 Sep
vs Chelsea
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lille – last 6
WWLWLW
10 Oct
vs Le Havre
1–0
W
2 Oct
vs Zulte Waregem
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ Nice
1–2
L
13 Sep
vs Estac Troyes
2–0
W
8 Sep
vs Real Betis
2–3
L
3 Sep
@ Toulouse
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Arsenal and Lille.
Our pick is Arsenal to win with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Arsenal vs Lille?
On our numbers Arsenal have a 71% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Lille 11%.
How many goals will there be in Arsenal vs Lille?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Arsenal vs Lille?
Our predicted score is Arsenal 2–0 Lille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Arsenal vs Lille?
Arsenal vs Lille (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Emirates Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
