RB Leipzig vs Manchester City preview and prediction
The match
The UEFA Champions League sees RB Leipzig take on Manchester City on Wednesday 4 November, kicking off at 21:00 (WAT) at Red Bull Arena. RB Leipzig are 30th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Manchester City sit 7th on 9 points (in the top half).
Form guide
RB Leipzig's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat FC Schalke 04 2–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.8 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Manchester City's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Brighton 0–1 at home. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
RB Leipzig arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 4.0 goals: 1.3 for RB Leipzig and 2.6 for Manchester City. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: RB Leipzig 15%, draw 22%, Manchester City 63%.
Safer route: Manchester City or draw (85%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.40.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.30. Predicted score: RB Leipzig 1–2 Manchester City. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
RB Leipzig15%fair 6.70 · @5.25
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @4.75
Manchester City63%fair 1.60 · @1.53
3.98Expected goals
1.34RB Leipzig xG
2.64Manchester City xG
65%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–38%
1–17%
0–27%
2–26%
0–36%
From our goals model: RB Leipzig 1.3 – 2.6 Manchester City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester City to win✓
63%
1.60
1.53
Double chance
Manchester City or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.53
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.08
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
54%
1.84
1.80
Half-time result
Manchester City ahead at half-time✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester City / FT Manchester City✓
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.46
–
Form
RB Leipzig – last 6
WWWLLW
31 Oct
@ FC Schalke 04
2–0
W
27 Oct
@ Rot-Weiß Essen
2–1
W
24 Oct
vs SV Elversberg
4–0
W
21 Oct
@ Real Madrid
1–4
L
17 Oct
@ Bayern München
1–6
L
13 Oct
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Manchester City – last 6
LDLWWL
31 Oct
vs Brighton
0–1
L
28 Oct
vs Brighton
2–2
D
24 Oct
@ Aston Villa
1–2
L
20 Oct
vs AEK Athens FC
5–1
W
17 Oct
vs Ipswich
3–2
W
14 Oct
vs Paris Saint Germain
2–4
L
2.2Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between RB Leipzig and Manchester City.
What is the prediction for RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
On our numbers RB Leipzig have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Manchester City 63%.
How many goals will there be in RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
Our predicted score is RB Leipzig 1–2 Manchester City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?
RB Leipzig vs Manchester City (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Red Bull Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
