AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid preview and prediction
The match
AEK Athens FC host Real Madrid in the UEFA Champions League on Wednesday 4 November, with kick-off at 18:45 (WAT) at Allwyn Arena. AEK Athens FC are 29th with 3 points from 4 games (in the bottom half), while Real Madrid sit 2nd on 12 points (in the top four).
Form guide
AEK Athens FC's last 5: LLWLL Most recently they lost to Panathinaikos 0–2 away. They average 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Real Madrid's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat Racing Santander 3–0 away. On the road they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Real Madrid arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 3.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.8 goals: 1.1 for AEK Athens FC and 2.7 for Real Madrid. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score in 63% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: AEK Athens FC 14%, draw 15%, Real Madrid 70%.
Both teams to score: yes (63%) at 1.57.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: AEK Athens FC 1–2 Real Madrid. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
AEK Athens FC14%fair 7.05 · @12.00
Draw15%fair 6.51 · @7.50
Real Madrid70%fair 1.42 · @1.20
3.82Expected goals
1.14AEK Athens FC xG
2.68Real Madrid xG
63%Both score
74%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–29%
1–38%
0–28%
0–37%
1–17%
0–16%
From our goals model: AEK Athens FC 1.1 – 2.7 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
70%
1.42
1.20
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.57
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.67
Half-time result
Real Madrid ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✗
48%
2.10
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.14
–
Form
AEK Athens FC – last 6
LLWLLW
1 Nov
@ Panathinaikos
0–2
L
28 Oct
@ PAOK
1–3
L
24 Oct
vs Panetolikos
5–0
W
20 Oct
@ Manchester City
1–5
L
14 Oct
@ Shakhtar Donetsk
1–3
L
10 Oct
vs OFI
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Real Madrid – last 6
WWWWWW
1 Nov
@ Racing Santander
3–0
W
25 Oct
@ Barcelona
2–1
W
21 Oct
vs RB Leipzig
4–1
W
18 Oct
vs Sevilla
4–1
W
14 Oct
@ AS Roma
4–3
W
10 Oct
vs Villarreal
1–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AEK Athens FC and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers AEK Athens FC have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Real Madrid 70%.
How many goals will there be in AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 3.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is AEK Athens FC 1–2 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.8 goals in total.
When is AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid?
AEK Athens FC vs Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Allwyn Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
