Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United prediction & analysis
68%
Footrivo pick
Cerezo Osaka to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.55 · Won ✓
7/10Rating
1.55Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 61% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultCerezo Osaka to win ✓68% · @1.55
Double chanceCerezo Osaka or draw ✓88% · @1.15
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗61% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · fair 1.41
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.83
Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United preview and prediction
The match
Kagoshima United travel to Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium in the Emperor Cup on Wednesday 7 October (10:30 WAT) to face Cerezo Osaka.
Form guide
Cerezo Osaka's last 5: WDLDW Most recently they beat Fujieda MYFC 2–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Kagoshima United's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Fukushima United 3–2 at home. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Kagoshima United arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.7 goals: 2.6 for Cerezo Osaka and 1.1 for Kagoshima United. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score in 61% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Cerezo Osaka 68%, draw 21%, Kagoshima United 12%.
Safer route: Cerezo Osaka or draw (88%) at 1.15.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.80.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 1.80 – 61% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Cerezo Osaka to win – a 68% chance at odds of 1.55, above our fair price of 1.48, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Cerezo Osaka 2–1 Kagoshima United. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Cerezo Osaka68%fair 1.48 · @1.55
Draw21%fair 4.86 · @3.60
Kagoshima United12%fair 8.53 · @5.00
3.67Expected goals
2.59Cerezo Osaka xG
1.08Kagoshima United xG
61%Both score
71%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–19%
2–09%
3–18%
3–07%
1–17%
1–07%
From our goals model: Cerezo Osaka 2.6 – 1.1 Kagoshima United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cerezo Osaka to win✓
68%
1.48
1.55
Double chance
Cerezo Osaka or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.15
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
61%
1.65
1.80 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Cerezo Osaka ahead at half-time✓
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cerezo Osaka / FT Cerezo Osaka✓
47%
2.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.83
–
Form
Cerezo Osaka – last 6
WDLDWL
29 Sep
@ Fujieda MYFC
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ V-varen Nagasaki
1–1
D
12 Sep
@ Sanfrecce Hiroshima
1–6
L
6 Sep
vs Tokyo Verdy
0–0
D
2 Sep
vs Kashiwa Reysol
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Vissel Kobe
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Kagoshima United – last 6
WDWWWL
4 Oct
vs Fukushima United
3–2
W
26 Sep
@ Kitakyushu
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Tochigi SC
3–1
W
13 Sep
@ Biwako Shiga
2–1
W
5 Sep
vs FC Ryukyu
2–1
W
2 Sep
vs Consadole Sapporo
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cerezo Osaka and Kagoshima United.
What is the prediction for Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United?
Our pick is Cerezo Osaka to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United?
On our numbers Cerezo Osaka have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Kagoshima United 12%.
How many goals will there be in Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United?
We expect about 3.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United?
Our predicted score is Cerezo Osaka 2–1 Kagoshima United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.7 goals in total.
When is Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United?
Cerezo Osaka vs Kagoshima United (Emperor Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 10:30 (West Africa Time) at Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Urawa3
Omiya Ardija2
Avispa Fukuoka0
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Sanfrecce Hiroshima4
Iwaki0
FC Tokyo4
Shonan Bellmare0
Gainare Tottori0
Tokyo Verdy0
Kawasaki Frontale2
Tegevajaro Miyazaki0
Fagiano Okayama1
JEF United Chiba0
Shimizu S-pulse1
V-varen Nagasaki1